Skip to main content
icon for Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
Politics·Taxes

Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

icon for Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
Politics·Taxes

Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

16% chance
Polymarket

$71,078 Vol.

16% chance
Polymarket

$71,078 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 90% cap on gambling loss deductions under Internal Revenue Code Section 165(d), enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax years after 2025, has faced repeated repeal efforts without success. Bipartisan measures such as the FAIR BET Act and FULL HOUSE Act, along with amendments by Rep. Dina Titus and others, were introduced in early 2026 but blocked in the House Rules Committee or stalled in committee. A July 2026 IRS hearing drew testimony from lawmakers, industry representatives, and gamblers urging restoration of full deductibility, yet no legislation advanced before the August 2026 recess. With limited remaining session time and no enacted reversal, traders assign an 84% implied probability against repeal before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.

Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,078
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 90% cap on gambling loss deductions under Internal Revenue Code Section 165(d), enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act and effective for tax years after 2025, has faced repeated repeal efforts without success. Bipartisan measures such as the FAIR BET Act and FULL HOUSE Act, along with amendments by Rep. Dina Titus and others, were introduced in early 2026 but blocked in the House Rules Committee or stalled in committee. A July 2026 IRS hearing drew testimony from lawmakers, industry representatives, and gamblers urging restoration of full deductibility, yet no legislation advanced before the August 2026 recess. With limited remaining session time and no enacted reversal, traders assign an 84% implied probability against repeal before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.

Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,078
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

16%
icon for Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?

3%
icon for Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

89%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 16% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 16¢, the market collectively assigns a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" has generated $71.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" is 16% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.