China’s infrequent pattern of public long-range ballistic missile tests, with only a handful of intercontinental or submarine-launched events acknowledged over decades, underpins the current trader consensus favoring no additional launches by year-end. The July 6, 2026 submarine-launched test into the Pacific—its first into international open waters—served as a demonstration of sea-based nuclear capabilities, coinciding with naval exercises but drawing criticism over short-notice notifications from the US, Australia, Japan, and others. Beijing described it as routine training and has shown no signs of imminent follow-on tests amid ongoing diplomatic exchanges at forums like the Conference on Disarmament. Absent new escalatory triggers or announced exercises requiring further demonstrations, the low implied probability for another launch reflects expectations of continued restraint through December.