**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3%, combined with a divided FOMC, is anchoring trader sentiment toward the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 57.5% implied probability for the July–September–October meetings.** The July 28–29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, as three regional presidents dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike amid supply shocks and energy price pressures. Softer labor market signals, including 4.1% unemployment and moderating wage growth, have tempered immediate tightening expectations, while the “Other” category at 40.5% captures residual hawkish scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI, PPI, and employment reports ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and its dot plot, which will shape whether the current pause extends through October. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing probabilities rather than certainties, with Treasury yields and fed funds futures providing the benchmark context.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 57%
Other 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$720,951 Vol.
$720,951 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
57%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
41%
Pause–Pause–Pause 57%
Other 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$720,951 Vol.
$720,951 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$238,984 Vol.
57%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$60,091 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$39,722 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,065 Vol.
<1%
Other
$311,602 Vol.
41%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3%, combined with a divided FOMC, is anchoring trader sentiment toward the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 57.5% implied probability for the July–September–October meetings.**
The July 28–29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, as three regional presidents dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike amid supply shocks and energy price pressures. Softer labor market signals, including 4.1% unemployment and moderating wage growth, have tempered immediate tightening expectations, while the “Other” category at 40.5% captures residual hawkish scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI, PPI, and employment reports ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and its dot plot, which will shape whether the current pause extends through October. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing probabilities rather than certainties, with Treasury yields and fed funds futures providing the benchmark context.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$720,951End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3%, combined with a divided FOMC, is anchoring trader sentiment toward the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 57.5% implied probability for the July–September–October meetings.**
The July 28–29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, as three regional presidents dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike amid supply shocks and energy price pressures. Softer labor market signals, including 4.1% unemployment and moderating wage growth, have tempered immediate tightening expectations, while the “Other” category at 40.5% captures residual hawkish scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI, PPI, and employment reports ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and its dot plot, which will shape whether the current pause extends through October. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing probabilities rather than certainties, with Treasury yields and fed funds futures providing the benchmark context.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$720,951End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3%, combined with a divided FOMC, is anchoring trader sentiment toward the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 57.5% implied probability for the July–September–October meetings.** The July 28–29 decision held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9-3 vote, as three regional presidents dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike amid supply shocks and energy price pressures. Softer labor market signals, including 4.1% unemployment and moderating wage growth, have tempered immediate tightening expectations, while the “Other” category at 40.5% captures residual hawkish scenarios. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI, PPI, and employment reports ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and its dot plot, which will shape whether the current pause extends through October. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game consensus pricing probabilities rather than certainties, with Treasury yields and fed funds futures providing the benchmark context.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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