Recent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside earlier elevated PCE readings near 3.5%, continue to anchor trader focus on whether persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target will prompt a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with three officials dissenting in favor of tightening amid solid growth and productivity trends. Market-implied odds for a September hike have eased to roughly 45% following softer employment and inflation prints, down from higher levels post-July. The next catalysts include August PCE and CPI releases plus the employment report, which will shape whether the Fed’s reaction function shifts hawkishly or remains on hold through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,356,181 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
31%
October Meeting
41%
$2,356,181 Vol.
September Meeting
$901,292 Vol.
31%
October Meeting
$494,889 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside earlier elevated PCE readings near 3.5%, continue to anchor trader focus on whether persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target will prompt a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with three officials dissenting in favor of tightening amid solid growth and productivity trends. Market-implied odds for a September hike have eased to roughly 45% following softer employment and inflation prints, down from higher levels post-July. The next catalysts include August PCE and CPI releases plus the employment report, which will shape whether the Fed’s reaction function shifts hawkishly or remains on hold through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,356,181End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside earlier elevated PCE readings near 3.5%, continue to anchor trader focus on whether persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target will prompt a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with three officials dissenting in favor of tightening amid solid growth and productivity trends. Market-implied odds for a September hike have eased to roughly 45% following softer employment and inflation prints, down from higher levels post-July. The next catalysts include August PCE and CPI releases plus the employment report, which will shape whether the Fed’s reaction function shifts hawkishly or remains on hold through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,356,181End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside earlier elevated PCE readings near 3.5%, continue to anchor trader focus on whether persistent price pressures above the Fed’s 2% target will prompt a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The July FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with three officials dissenting in favor of tightening amid solid growth and productivity trends. Market-implied odds for a September hike have eased to roughly 45% following softer employment and inflation prints, down from higher levels post-July. The next catalysts include August PCE and CPI releases plus the employment report, which will shape whether the Fed’s reaction function shifts hawkishly or remains on hold through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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