Persistent high pressure and clear skies are sustaining a heat wave across central Texas, with National Weather Service and commercial model consensus pointing to a daily maximum near 104–105°F on August 26 under light southerly flow and abundant August sunshine. Recent observations show highs of 104–106°F the prior two days, and forecasters cite strong radiative heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation as the dominant driver. This positions the 104–105°F bin as the modal outcome while allowing modest probability for 102–103°F if boundary-layer mixing or a late-day veil develops. Traders are weighting the tight clustering of official guidance and the absence of any cooling front through the 26th, with resolution hinging on the official Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry maximum reported by the National Weather Service.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 26?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 26?
104-105°F 50%
102-103°F 37%
106-107°F 10%
100-101°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
37%
104-105°F
50%
106-107°F
10%
108-109°F
3%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 50%
102-103°F 37%
106-107°F 10%
100-101°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
95°F or below
$310 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$277 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$295 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$337 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$240 Vol.
37%
104-105°F
$554 Vol.
50%
106-107°F
$187 Vol.
10%
108-109°F
$64 Vol.
3%
110-111°F
$112 Vol.
<1%
112-113°F
$290 Vol.
<1%
114°F or higher
$365 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and clear skies are sustaining a heat wave across central Texas, with National Weather Service and commercial model consensus pointing to a daily maximum near 104–105°F on August 26 under light southerly flow and abundant August sunshine. Recent observations show highs of 104–106°F the prior two days, and forecasters cite strong radiative heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation as the dominant driver. This positions the 104–105°F bin as the modal outcome while allowing modest probability for 102–103°F if boundary-layer mixing or a late-day veil develops. Traders are weighting the tight clustering of official guidance and the absence of any cooling front through the 26th, with resolution hinging on the official Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry maximum reported by the National Weather Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,029End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and clear skies are sustaining a heat wave across central Texas, with National Weather Service and commercial model consensus pointing to a daily maximum near 104–105°F on August 26 under light southerly flow and abundant August sunshine. Recent observations show highs of 104–106°F the prior two days, and forecasters cite strong radiative heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation as the dominant driver. This positions the 104–105°F bin as the modal outcome while allowing modest probability for 102–103°F if boundary-layer mixing or a late-day veil develops. Traders are weighting the tight clustering of official guidance and the absence of any cooling front through the 26th, with resolution hinging on the official Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry maximum reported by the National Weather Service.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,029End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and clear skies are sustaining a heat wave across central Texas, with National Weather Service and commercial model consensus pointing to a daily maximum near 104–105°F on August 26 under light southerly flow and abundant August sunshine. Recent observations show highs of 104–106°F the prior two days, and forecasters cite strong radiative heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation as the dominant driver. This positions the 104–105°F bin as the modal outcome while allowing modest probability for 102–103°F if boundary-layer mixing or a late-day veil develops. Traders are weighting the tight clustering of official guidance and the absence of any cooling front through the 26th, with resolution hinging on the official Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry maximum reported by the National Weather Service.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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