Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Austin on August 25, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge, southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This baseline supports the market’s clustering of probability across the 70–85 °F buckets while the 35 % implied odds on 69 °F or below capture the tail risk of modest model divergence or an unexpected increase in boundary-layer moisture. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 75 °F, yet the ongoing heat wave has kept recent lows 3–5 °F above average, tightening the window for any meaningful cool-down before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 25?
88°F or higher 59%
69°F or below 35%
84-85°F 31%
72-73°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
69°F or below
35%
70-71°F
24%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
25%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
31%
86-87°F
7%
88°F or higher
59%
88°F or higher 59%
69°F or below 35%
84-85°F 31%
72-73°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
35%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
24%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
25%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
24%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
24%
82-83°F
$5 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
31%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
7%
88°F or higher
$5 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Austin on August 25, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge, southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This baseline supports the market’s clustering of probability across the 70–85 °F buckets while the 35 % implied odds on 69 °F or below capture the tail risk of modest model divergence or an unexpected increase in boundary-layer moisture. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 75 °F, yet the ongoing heat wave has kept recent lows 3–5 °F above average, tightening the window for any meaningful cool-down before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Austin on August 25, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge, southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This baseline supports the market’s clustering of probability across the 70–85 °F buckets while the 35 % implied odds on 69 °F or below capture the tail risk of modest model divergence or an unexpected increase in boundary-layer moisture. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 75 °F, yet the ongoing heat wave has kept recent lows 3–5 °F above average, tightening the window for any meaningful cool-down before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus point to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Austin on August 25, sustained by a strong subtropical ridge, southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. This baseline supports the market’s clustering of probability across the 70–85 °F buckets while the 35 % implied odds on 69 °F or below capture the tail risk of modest model divergence or an unexpected increase in boundary-layer moisture. Historical August climatology places typical minima near 75 °F, yet the ongoing heat wave has kept recent lows 3–5 °F above average, tightening the window for any meaningful cool-down before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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