**Marine layer stability and consistent onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco’s overnight low on August 25 near the upper 50s.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from the past 48 hours project lows in the upper 50s, with several point forecasts centering on 58 °F under mostly cloudy skies and west-to-southwest winds of 5–15 mph. This aligns with the historical August average low of 56 °F while reflecting the moderating influence of the persistent marine layer that has kept recent daily minima in the mid-to-upper 50s. Model consensus shows limited spread, with only modest potential for a dip toward 56–57 °F if the marine layer deepens overnight or winds remain light; conversely, any clearing or slight offshore component could hold the minimum at 58–59 °F. No significant synoptic changes or heat intrusions are expected in the next 24 hours, keeping the market-implied probabilities concentrated on the 56–59 °F range as the most likely resolution outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 25?
58-59°F 43%
56-57°F 42%
68°F or higher 32%
52-53°F 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
14%
50-51°F
19%
52-53°F
23%
54-55°F
22%
56-57°F
42%
58-59°F
43%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
22%
64-65°F
10%
66-67°F
2%
68°F or higher
32%
58-59°F 43%
56-57°F 42%
68°F or higher 32%
52-53°F 23%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
14%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
19%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
23%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
22%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
42%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
43%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
19%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
22%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
10%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
2%
68°F or higher
$5 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer stability and consistent onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco’s overnight low on August 25 near the upper 50s.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from the past 48 hours project lows in the upper 50s, with several point forecasts centering on 58 °F under mostly cloudy skies and west-to-southwest winds of 5–15 mph. This aligns with the historical August average low of 56 °F while reflecting the moderating influence of the persistent marine layer that has kept recent daily minima in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Model consensus shows limited spread, with only modest potential for a dip toward 56–57 °F if the marine layer deepens overnight or winds remain light; conversely, any clearing or slight offshore component could hold the minimum at 58–59 °F. No significant synoptic changes or heat intrusions are expected in the next 24 hours, keeping the market-implied probabilities concentrated on the 56–59 °F range as the most likely resolution outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Marine layer stability and consistent onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco’s overnight low on August 25 near the upper 50s.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from the past 48 hours project lows in the upper 50s, with several point forecasts centering on 58 °F under mostly cloudy skies and west-to-southwest winds of 5–15 mph. This aligns with the historical August average low of 56 °F while reflecting the moderating influence of the persistent marine layer that has kept recent daily minima in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Model consensus shows limited spread, with only modest potential for a dip toward 56–57 °F if the marine layer deepens overnight or winds remain light; conversely, any clearing or slight offshore component could hold the minimum at 58–59 °F. No significant synoptic changes or heat intrusions are expected in the next 24 hours, keeping the market-implied probabilities concentrated on the 56–59 °F range as the most likely resolution outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Marine layer stability and consistent onshore flow are anchoring trader expectations for San Francisco’s overnight low on August 25 near the upper 50s.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from the past 48 hours project lows in the upper 50s, with several point forecasts centering on 58 °F under mostly cloudy skies and west-to-southwest winds of 5–15 mph. This aligns with the historical August average low of 56 °F while reflecting the moderating influence of the persistent marine layer that has kept recent daily minima in the mid-to-upper 50s. Model consensus shows limited spread, with only modest potential for a dip toward 56–57 °F if the marine layer deepens overnight or winds remain light; conversely, any clearing or slight offshore component could hold the minimum at 58–59 °F. No significant synoptic changes or heat intrusions are expected in the next 24 hours, keeping the market-implied probabilities concentrated on the 56–59 °F range as the most likely resolution outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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