Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate Houston highs near 99–100°F on August 25 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market's leading 98–99°F bin. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf are sustaining elevated heat content, while model runs show limited cloud cover or precipitation to moderate afternoon maxima. Historical August climatology places normal highs in the low-to-mid 90s, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly. Updated model guidance and any late-day convective development remain the key variables that could shift realized temperatures within the narrow 96–101°F range dominating implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 25?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 25?
98-99°F 52%
96-97°F 31%
100-101°F 11%
94-95°F 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
31%
98-99°F
52%
100-101°F
11%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 52%
96-97°F 31%
100-101°F 11%
94-95°F 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
89°F or below
$245 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$89 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$10 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$138 Vol.
3%
96-97°F
$161 Vol.
31%
98-99°F
$363 Vol.
52%
100-101°F
$55 Vol.
11%
102-103°F
$91 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$20 Vol.
1%
106-107°F
$112 Vol.
1%
108°F or higher
$175 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate Houston highs near 99–100°F on August 25 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market's leading 98–99°F bin. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf are sustaining elevated heat content, while model runs show limited cloud cover or precipitation to moderate afternoon maxima. Historical August climatology places normal highs in the low-to-mid 90s, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly. Updated model guidance and any late-day convective development remain the key variables that could shift realized temperatures within the narrow 96–101°F range dominating implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$1,459End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate Houston highs near 99–100°F on August 25 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market's leading 98–99°F bin. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf are sustaining elevated heat content, while model runs show limited cloud cover or precipitation to moderate afternoon maxima. Historical August climatology places normal highs in the low-to-mid 90s, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly. Updated model guidance and any late-day convective development remain the key variables that could shift realized temperatures within the narrow 96–101°F range dominating implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,459End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and local forecasts indicate Houston highs near 99–100°F on August 25 under sunny skies and light southerly flow, aligning with the market's leading 98–99°F bin. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Gulf are sustaining elevated heat content, while model runs show limited cloud cover or precipitation to moderate afternoon maxima. Historical August climatology places normal highs in the low-to-mid 90s, so current conditions represent a notable positive anomaly. Updated model guidance and any late-day convective development remain the key variables that could shift realized temperatures within the narrow 96–101°F range dominating implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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