Current forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C for Toronto on August 25, driven by northwest winds and clearing skies after recent showers that have kept overnight lows in the 15–16°C range. Trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome reflects uncertainty in radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the potential for slightly stronger cold-air advection, consistent with the below-average conditions observed since August 23. Historical August minima average near 17°C, so these market-implied probabilities aggregate real-time model consensus while acknowledging typical forecast spread in late-summer boundary-layer conditions. Updated model runs and official low-temperature observations will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
11°C or below 94%
21°C or higher 50%
12°C 47%
15°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
11°C or below
94%
12°C
47%
13°C
24%
14°C
24%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
12%
19°C
11%
20°C
21%
21°C or higher
50%
11°C or below 94%
21°C or higher 50%
12°C 47%
15°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
11°C or below
$5 Vol.
94%
12°C
$5 Vol.
47%
13°C
$0 Vol.
24%
14°C
$0 Vol.
24%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
12%
19°C
$4 Vol.
11%
20°C
$5 Vol.
21%
21°C or higher
$5 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C for Toronto on August 25, driven by northwest winds and clearing skies after recent showers that have kept overnight lows in the 15–16°C range. Trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome reflects uncertainty in radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the potential for slightly stronger cold-air advection, consistent with the below-average conditions observed since August 23. Historical August minima average near 17°C, so these market-implied probabilities aggregate real-time model consensus while acknowledging typical forecast spread in late-summer boundary-layer conditions. Updated model runs and official low-temperature observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$24End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C for Toronto on August 25, driven by northwest winds and clearing skies after recent showers that have kept overnight lows in the 15–16°C range. Trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome reflects uncertainty in radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the potential for slightly stronger cold-air advection, consistent with the below-average conditions observed since August 23. Historical August minima average near 17°C, so these market-implied probabilities aggregate real-time model consensus while acknowledging typical forecast spread in late-summer boundary-layer conditions. Updated model runs and official low-temperature observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from Environment Canada and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 14°C for Toronto on August 25, driven by northwest winds and clearing skies after recent showers that have kept overnight lows in the 15–16°C range. Trader emphasis on the 11°C-or-below outcome reflects uncertainty in radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and the potential for slightly stronger cold-air advection, consistent with the below-average conditions observed since August 23. Historical August minima average near 17°C, so these market-implied probabilities aggregate real-time model consensus while acknowledging typical forecast spread in late-summer boundary-layer conditions. Updated model runs and official low-temperature observations will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions