**Forecast models and official guidance point to a low near 14°C overnight into August 24, with modest cooling under increasing cloud cover and scattered showers.** Environment Canada’s latest outlook calls for a nighttime low of 14°C with a 30% chance of showers and southwest winds becoming light, consistent with the market’s top probabilities clustered at 12–14°C. Persistent cloudiness from the current frontal passage limits radiational cooling, while moderate westerly flow promotes mixing that prevents sharper drops. Recent observations show Toronto under overcast skies with showers on August 23, keeping surface temperatures several degrees below seasonal normals (historical August 24 average low ~17°C). Model consensus (including GEM and GFS runs) favors a minimum in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, though small differences in cloud timing, shower placement, or wind gusts create the observed spread across 12–15°C outcomes. Higher probabilities on 14°C reflect the current central tendency, while the non-negligible share on 12°C captures upside risk from clearer breaks or stronger advection of cooler air. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables against the short resolution window, with fresh model updates and Environment Canada briefings likely to drive any further shifts before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 24?
12°C 38%
14°C 35%
13°C 28%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
3%
10°C
5%
11°C
23%
12°C
38%
13°C
28%
14°C
35%
15°C
27%
16°C
27%
17°C
26%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
2%
12°C 38%
14°C 35%
13°C 28%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$135 Vol.
3%
10°C
$56 Vol.
5%
11°C
$5 Vol.
23%
12°C
$0 Vol.
38%
13°C
$0 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
35%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$155 Vol.
3%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance point to a low near 14°C overnight into August 24, with modest cooling under increasing cloud cover and scattered showers.** Environment Canada’s latest outlook calls for a nighttime low of 14°C with a 30% chance of showers and southwest winds becoming light, consistent with the market’s top probabilities clustered at 12–14°C. Persistent cloudiness from the current frontal passage limits radiational cooling, while moderate westerly flow promotes mixing that prevents sharper drops.
Recent observations show Toronto under overcast skies with showers on August 23, keeping surface temperatures several degrees below seasonal normals (historical August 24 average low ~17°C). Model consensus (including GEM and GFS runs) favors a minimum in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, though small differences in cloud timing, shower placement, or wind gusts create the observed spread across 12–15°C outcomes. Higher probabilities on 14°C reflect the current central tendency, while the non-negligible share on 12°C captures upside risk from clearer breaks or stronger advection of cooler air.
Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables against the short resolution window, with fresh model updates and Environment Canada briefings likely to drive any further shifts before the period closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$356End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance point to a low near 14°C overnight into August 24, with modest cooling under increasing cloud cover and scattered showers.** Environment Canada’s latest outlook calls for a nighttime low of 14°C with a 30% chance of showers and southwest winds becoming light, consistent with the market’s top probabilities clustered at 12–14°C. Persistent cloudiness from the current frontal passage limits radiational cooling, while moderate westerly flow promotes mixing that prevents sharper drops.
Recent observations show Toronto under overcast skies with showers on August 23, keeping surface temperatures several degrees below seasonal normals (historical August 24 average low ~17°C). Model consensus (including GEM and GFS runs) favors a minimum in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, though small differences in cloud timing, shower placement, or wind gusts create the observed spread across 12–15°C outcomes. Higher probabilities on 14°C reflect the current central tendency, while the non-negligible share on 12°C captures upside risk from clearer breaks or stronger advection of cooler air.
Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables against the short resolution window, with fresh model updates and Environment Canada briefings likely to drive any further shifts before the period closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$356End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance point to a low near 14°C overnight into August 24, with modest cooling under increasing cloud cover and scattered showers.** Environment Canada’s latest outlook calls for a nighttime low of 14°C with a 30% chance of showers and southwest winds becoming light, consistent with the market’s top probabilities clustered at 12–14°C. Persistent cloudiness from the current frontal passage limits radiational cooling, while moderate westerly flow promotes mixing that prevents sharper drops. Recent observations show Toronto under overcast skies with showers on August 23, keeping surface temperatures several degrees below seasonal normals (historical August 24 average low ~17°C). Model consensus (including GEM and GFS runs) favors a minimum in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, though small differences in cloud timing, shower placement, or wind gusts create the observed spread across 12–15°C outcomes. Higher probabilities on 14°C reflect the current central tendency, while the non-negligible share on 12°C captures upside risk from clearer breaks or stronger advection of cooler air. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables against the short resolution window, with fresh model updates and Environment Canada briefings likely to drive any further shifts before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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