Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner
Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner
Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner

Sagal Abdi-Wali 45%

Zack Polanski 23%

David Stansell 14.0%

Luisa Porritt 5%

Polymarket
NEW

Sagal Abdi-Wali 45%

Zack Polanski 23%

David Stansell 14.0%

Luisa Porritt 5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Sagal Abdi-Wali

Sagal Abdi-Wali

$1,150 Vol.

45%

icon for Zack Polanski

Zack Polanski

$1,337 Vol.

23%

icon for David Stansell

David Stansell

$83 Vol.

14%

icon for Luisa Porritt

Luisa Porritt

$83 Vol.

5%

icon for Andrew Feinstein

Andrew Feinstein

$100 Vol.

5%

icon for Pat Callaghan

Pat Callaghan

$83 Vol.

5%

icon for Hamza Chowdhury

Hamza Chowdhury

$103 Vol.

4%

icon for Keith Moffitt

Keith Moffitt

$133 Vol.

4%

icon for Richard Olszewski

Richard Olszewski

$103 Vol.

4%

icon for Mehreen Malik

Mehreen Malik

$83 Vol.

3%

icon for Gio Spinella

Gio Spinella

$86 Vol.

3%

icon for Adam Harrison

Adam Harrison

$65 Vol.

2%

icon for Tricia Leman

Tricia Leman

$83 Vol.

2%

icon for Sarah Hayward

Sarah Hayward

$65 Vol.

2%

icon for James White

James White

$86 Vol.

2%

icon for Lorna Jane Russell

Lorna Jane Russell

$65 Vol.

1%

icon for Jim Monahan

Jim Monahan

$83 Vol.

1%

icon for Siân Berry

Siân Berry

$70 Vol.

1%

icon for Charlie Clinton

Charlie Clinton

$83 Vol.

1%

icon for Oliver Cooper

Oliver Cooper

$83 Vol.

1%

icon for Sarah Pochin

Sarah Pochin

$83 Vol.

1%

icon for David Roberts

David Roberts

$83 Vol.

1%

icon for Georgia Gould

Georgia Gould

$625 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's ongoing candidate selection process, closing applications on 4 September with a decision expected shortly after, combined with Zack Polanski's likely Green Party bid, keeps the by-election tightly contested in trader pricing. Starmer's 1 September resignation as MP for the long-held Labour seat has opened the contest, building on 2024 results where an independent and Greens polled strongly amid local dissatisfaction. By-election swings, potential tactical voting, and the absence of confirmed nominees from major parties sustain uncertainty, with no polling yet available and the writ still pending. Confirmation of the Labour frontrunner and Polanski's formal selection could shift implied probabilities once campaigning intensifies ahead of an expected autumn vote.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$4,819
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's ongoing candidate selection process, closing applications on 4 September with a decision expected shortly after, combined with Zack Polanski's likely Green Party bid, keeps the by-election tightly contested in trader pricing. Starmer's 1 September resignation as MP for the long-held Labour seat has opened the contest, building on 2024 results where an independent and Greens polled strongly amid local dissatisfaction. By-election swings, potential tactical voting, and the absence of confirmed nominees from major parties sustain uncertainty, with no polling yet available and the writ still pending. Confirmation of the Labour frontrunner and Polanski's formal selection could shift implied probabilities once campaigning intensifies ahead of an expected autumn vote.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$4,819
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).

Related

icon for Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

68%
icon for Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?

Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?

52%
icon for Will Mike Derry win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?

Will Mike Derry win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?

92%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sagal Abdi-Wali" at 45%, followed by "Zack Polanski" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" is "Sagal Abdi-Wali" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Zack Polanski" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.