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icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Economy·Fed Rates

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

icon for How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Economy·Fed Rates

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

Sep 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Sep 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$58 Vol.

Polymarket

5.10%

$58 Vol.

10%

5.05%

$0 Vol.

50%

5.00%

$0 Vol.

50%

4.97%

$0 Vol.

50%

4.94%

$0 Vol.

50%

4.91%

$0 Vol.

50%

4.88%

$0 Vol.

50%

4.85%

$0 Vol.

50%

4.82%

$0 Vol.

61%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above consensus, lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, with intraday peaks near 4.81% amid expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh on persistent inflation, combined with Middle East geopolitical risks driving oil prices higher, reinforced market-implied odds for tighter policy and elevated long-term yields. Dovish comments from Governor Christopher Waller later tempered some of the move, highlighting sensitivity to incoming inflation data. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases and Fed communications for shifts in the higher-for-longer rate path versus historical averages around 4-5% in similar economic backdrops.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$58
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above consensus, lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, with intraday peaks near 4.81% amid expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh on persistent inflation, combined with Middle East geopolitical risks driving oil prices higher, reinforced market-implied odds for tighter policy and elevated long-term yields. Dovish comments from Governor Christopher Waller later tempered some of the move, highlighting sensitivity to incoming inflation data. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases and Fed communications for shifts in the higher-for-longer rate path versus historical averages around 4-5% in similar economic backdrops.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$58
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.82%" at 61%, followed by "5.05%" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?" is "4.82%" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5.05%" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.