Global seismicity patterns tracked by the USGS establish a baseline of roughly 15–25 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and fault systems. Recent 2026 activity, including multiple M6.5–7.7 events in Indonesia, Colombia, and Peru during August, aligns with or exceeds this average without any prolonged seismic lull, pushing the count well above 13 by the final day of the August 17–23 window. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for >13 reflects this predictable rate plus real-time catalog updates. The primary uncertainty remains final USGS verification of borderline events near the exact time cutoff, though model runs and aftershock sequences make a sharp drop below threshold highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
>13 99.4%
≤6 <1%
7 <1%
8 <1%
$58,130 Vol.
$58,130 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
<1%
7
<1%
8
<1%
9
<1%
10
<1%
11
<1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
>13
99%
>13 99.4%
≤6 <1%
7 <1%
8 <1%
$58,130 Vol.
$58,130 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
≤6
$7,036 Vol.
<1%
7
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
8
$2,682 Vol.
<1%
9
$3,756 Vol.
<1%
10
$7,289 Vol.
<1%
11
$2,673 Vol.
<1%
12
$5,368 Vol.
<1%
13
$7,979 Vol.
<1%
>13
$19,885 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity patterns tracked by the USGS establish a baseline of roughly 15–25 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and fault systems. Recent 2026 activity, including multiple M6.5–7.7 events in Indonesia, Colombia, and Peru during August, aligns with or exceeds this average without any prolonged seismic lull, pushing the count well above 13 by the final day of the August 17–23 window. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for >13 reflects this predictable rate plus real-time catalog updates. The primary uncertainty remains final USGS verification of borderline events near the exact time cutoff, though model runs and aftershock sequences make a sharp drop below threshold highly improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volume
$58,130End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity patterns tracked by the USGS establish a baseline of roughly 15–25 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and fault systems. Recent 2026 activity, including multiple M6.5–7.7 events in Indonesia, Colombia, and Peru during August, aligns with or exceeds this average without any prolonged seismic lull, pushing the count well above 13 by the final day of the August 17–23 window. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for >13 reflects this predictable rate plus real-time catalog updates. The primary uncertainty remains final USGS verification of borderline events near the exact time cutoff, though model runs and aftershock sequences make a sharp drop below threshold highly improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$58,130End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity patterns tracked by the USGS establish a baseline of roughly 15–25 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes per week worldwide, driven by steady tectonic plate motion along major subduction zones and fault systems. Recent 2026 activity, including multiple M6.5–7.7 events in Indonesia, Colombia, and Peru during August, aligns with or exceeds this average without any prolonged seismic lull, pushing the count well above 13 by the final day of the August 17–23 window. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for >13 reflects this predictable rate plus real-time catalog updates. The primary uncertainty remains final USGS verification of borderline events near the exact time cutoff, though model runs and aftershock sequences make a sharp drop below threshold highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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