**Trader sentiment strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake during August 17–23, 2026, with 90.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects USGS-confirmed data showing only a single qualifying event—an M6.7 quake at 99 km depth near Aniso, Peru, on August 20—while subsequent activity through August 23 remained below the threshold, including an M6.2 in the Scotia Sea and an M6.0 off Japan. Global seismicity rates typically produce 1–2 such events per week, and current monitoring aligns with that baseline without clustering or foreshock sequences that would elevate the count. The market-implied odds would shift only if a late-period aftershock or independent rupture reaches M6.5+ before the window closes, or if magnitude revisions alter the existing tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
1 91.8%
2 8%
>5 <1%
5 <1%
$19,599 Vol.
$19,599 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
0
<1%
1
92%
2
8%
3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
>5
1%
1 91.8%
2 8%
>5 <1%
5 <1%
$19,599 Vol.
$19,599 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
0
$4,848 Vol.
<1%
1
$5,668 Vol.
92%
2
$4,114 Vol.
8%
3
$732 Vol.
1%
4
$696 Vol.
1%
5
$1,200 Vol.
1%
>5
$2,341 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader sentiment strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake during August 17–23, 2026, with 90.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects USGS-confirmed data showing only a single qualifying event—an M6.7 quake at 99 km depth near Aniso, Peru, on August 20—while subsequent activity through August 23 remained below the threshold, including an M6.2 in the Scotia Sea and an M6.0 off Japan. Global seismicity rates typically produce 1–2 such events per week, and current monitoring aligns with that baseline without clustering or foreshock sequences that would elevate the count. The market-implied odds would shift only if a late-period aftershock or independent rupture reaches M6.5+ before the window closes, or if magnitude revisions alter the existing tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$19,599End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader sentiment strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake during August 17–23, 2026, with 90.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects USGS-confirmed data showing only a single qualifying event—an M6.7 quake at 99 km depth near Aniso, Peru, on August 20—while subsequent activity through August 23 remained below the threshold, including an M6.2 in the Scotia Sea and an M6.0 off Japan. Global seismicity rates typically produce 1–2 such events per week, and current monitoring aligns with that baseline without clustering or foreshock sequences that would elevate the count. The market-implied odds would shift only if a late-period aftershock or independent rupture reaches M6.5+ before the window closes, or if magnitude revisions alter the existing tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$19,599End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake during August 17–23, 2026, with 90.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects USGS-confirmed data showing only a single qualifying event—an M6.7 quake at 99 km depth near Aniso, Peru, on August 20—while subsequent activity through August 23 remained below the threshold, including an M6.2 in the Scotia Sea and an M6.0 off Japan. Global seismicity rates typically produce 1–2 such events per week, and current monitoring aligns with that baseline without clustering or foreshock sequences that would elevate the count. The market-implied odds would shift only if a late-period aftershock or independent rupture reaches M6.5+ before the window closes, or if magnitude revisions alter the existing tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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