Global seismicity records from the USGS indicate an average of roughly 120–150 magnitude 6–6.9 earthquakes annually, implying a baseline expectation of 0–1 events reaching 6.5 or above in any given week worldwide. Market-implied odds favoring zero or one event align with this long-term rate and the absence of elevated activity clusters or foreshock sequences in recent monitoring data. No major aftershock sequences or unusual tectonic signals have been reported in the days leading into the August 24–30 window, keeping probabilities anchored to historical norms rather than transient spikes. Continuous USGS updates will determine resolution as new observations arrive.