Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the September 11 seizure of Perim Island and Mokha port, have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating regional conflict that has also disrupted Hormuz traffic. This has driven sharp daily transit drops—recent figures show 6–28 vessels versus historical averages near 50–60—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope by major carriers wary of attacks or blockades. With outcomes clustered near 25–26% across the 170–230+ bands, traders appear to embed elevated uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes, collapses further, or rebounds on any de-escalation signals before the week of September 14. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of these fluid geopolitical and security risks rather than fixed forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
<170 26%
170-189 26%
190-209 26%
210-229 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<170
26%
170-189
26%
190-209
26%
210-229
26%
230+
25%
<170 26%
170-189 26%
190-209 26%
210-229 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$0 Vol.
26%
170-189
$0 Vol.
26%
190-209
$0 Vol.
26%
210-229
$0 Vol.
26%
230+
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the September 11 seizure of Perim Island and Mokha port, have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating regional conflict that has also disrupted Hormuz traffic. This has driven sharp daily transit drops—recent figures show 6–28 vessels versus historical averages near 50–60—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope by major carriers wary of attacks or blockades. With outcomes clustered near 25–26% across the 170–230+ bands, traders appear to embed elevated uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes, collapses further, or rebounds on any de-escalation signals before the week of September 14. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of these fluid geopolitical and security risks rather than fixed forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the September 11 seizure of Perim Island and Mokha port, have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating regional conflict that has also disrupted Hormuz traffic. This has driven sharp daily transit drops—recent figures show 6–28 vessels versus historical averages near 50–60—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope by major carriers wary of attacks or blockades. With outcomes clustered near 25–26% across the 170–230+ bands, traders appear to embed elevated uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes, collapses further, or rebounds on any de-escalation signals before the week of September 14. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of these fluid geopolitical and security risks rather than fixed forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the September 11 seizure of Perim Island and Mokha port, have tightened control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating regional conflict that has also disrupted Hormuz traffic. This has driven sharp daily transit drops—recent figures show 6–28 vessels versus historical averages near 50–60—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope by major carriers wary of attacks or blockades. With outcomes clustered near 25–26% across the 170–230+ bands, traders appear to embed elevated uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes, collapses further, or rebounds on any de-escalation signals before the week of September 14. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of these fluid geopolitical and security risks rather than fixed forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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