Recent sharp declines in Strait of Hormuz transits—to just seven vessels on September 10 versus a 10-day average of 15 and historical norms above 100—stem from escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a renewed blockade, IRGC enforcement actions, and shipping attacks that have prompted widespread AIS deactivation and route caution. These developments, alongside Houthi advances in the Red Sea, have lifted oil prices above $100 per barrel and compressed visible tanker and bulk flows. With the week of September 14 beginning amid active conflict, closely matched market-implied probabilities across bins from under 20 to 40-plus transits reflect trader consensus on persistent volatility rather than any single outcome. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation signals, further naval incidents, or shifts in blockade intensity that could alter weekly aggregates before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
20-24 27%
40+ 27%
25-29 27%
30-34 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<20
25%
20-24
27%
25-29
27%
30-34
27%
35-39
24%
40+
27%
20-24 27%
40+ 27%
25-29 27%
30-34 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$0 Vol.
25%
20-24
$0 Vol.
27%
25-29
$0 Vol.
27%
30-34
$0 Vol.
27%
35-39
$0 Vol.
24%
40+
$0 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent sharp declines in Strait of Hormuz transits—to just seven vessels on September 10 versus a 10-day average of 15 and historical norms above 100—stem from escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a renewed blockade, IRGC enforcement actions, and shipping attacks that have prompted widespread AIS deactivation and route caution. These developments, alongside Houthi advances in the Red Sea, have lifted oil prices above $100 per barrel and compressed visible tanker and bulk flows. With the week of September 14 beginning amid active conflict, closely matched market-implied probabilities across bins from under 20 to 40-plus transits reflect trader consensus on persistent volatility rather than any single outcome. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation signals, further naval incidents, or shifts in blockade intensity that could alter weekly aggregates before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent sharp declines in Strait of Hormuz transits—to just seven vessels on September 10 versus a 10-day average of 15 and historical norms above 100—stem from escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a renewed blockade, IRGC enforcement actions, and shipping attacks that have prompted widespread AIS deactivation and route caution. These developments, alongside Houthi advances in the Red Sea, have lifted oil prices above $100 per barrel and compressed visible tanker and bulk flows. With the week of September 14 beginning amid active conflict, closely matched market-implied probabilities across bins from under 20 to 40-plus transits reflect trader consensus on persistent volatility rather than any single outcome. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation signals, further naval incidents, or shifts in blockade intensity that could alter weekly aggregates before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent sharp declines in Strait of Hormuz transits—to just seven vessels on September 10 versus a 10-day average of 15 and historical norms above 100—stem from escalated U.S.-Iran hostilities, including a renewed blockade, IRGC enforcement actions, and shipping attacks that have prompted widespread AIS deactivation and route caution. These developments, alongside Houthi advances in the Red Sea, have lifted oil prices above $100 per barrel and compressed visible tanker and bulk flows. With the week of September 14 beginning amid active conflict, closely matched market-implied probabilities across bins from under 20 to 40-plus transits reflect trader consensus on persistent volatility rather than any single outcome. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation signals, further naval incidents, or shifts in blockade intensity that could alter weekly aggregates before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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