Recent monthly CPI prints, including 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, combined with RBI projections of 5.0% for FY 2026-27, underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for annual inflation at or above 4.50%. Elevated food inflation at 5.52% and transportation costs reflect pass-through from higher global crude prices near $110 per barrel and Middle East supply risks, while core inflation excluding food and fuel holds near 3.9%. Professional forecasters' median estimates align with this path, citing unfavorable base effects and potential monsoon disruptions into the second half of the year. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward the upper range, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below 3.75%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 80%
3.75% to 4.49% 13.4%
<0.75% 3.7%
3.00% to 3.74% 2.3%
$78,399 Vol.
$78,399 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
2%
1.50% to 2.24%
1%
2.25% to 2.99%
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
2%
3.75% to 4.49%
13%
4.50%+
80%
4.50%+ 80%
3.75% to 4.49% 13.4%
<0.75% 3.7%
3.00% to 3.74% 2.3%
$78,399 Vol.
$78,399 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
$1,769 Vol.
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
$1,191 Vol.
2%
1.50% to 2.24%
$1,295 Vol.
1%
2.25% to 2.99%
$24,989 Vol.
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
$2,081 Vol.
2%
3.75% to 4.49%
$29,564 Vol.
13%
4.50%+
$17,510 Vol.
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI prints, including 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, combined with RBI projections of 5.0% for FY 2026-27, underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for annual inflation at or above 4.50%. Elevated food inflation at 5.52% and transportation costs reflect pass-through from higher global crude prices near $110 per barrel and Middle East supply risks, while core inflation excluding food and fuel holds near 3.9%. Professional forecasters' median estimates align with this path, citing unfavorable base effects and potential monsoon disruptions into the second half of the year. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward the upper range, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below 3.75%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$78,399End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI prints, including 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, combined with RBI projections of 5.0% for FY 2026-27, underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for annual inflation at or above 4.50%. Elevated food inflation at 5.52% and transportation costs reflect pass-through from higher global crude prices near $110 per barrel and Middle East supply risks, while core inflation excluding food and fuel holds near 3.9%. Professional forecasters' median estimates align with this path, citing unfavorable base effects and potential monsoon disruptions into the second half of the year. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward the upper range, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below 3.75%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$78,399End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly CPI prints, including 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June, combined with RBI projections of 5.0% for FY 2026-27, underpin the 79.5% market-implied probability for annual inflation at or above 4.50%. Elevated food inflation at 5.52% and transportation costs reflect pass-through from higher global crude prices near $110 per barrel and Middle East supply risks, while core inflation excluding food and fuel holds near 3.9%. Professional forecasters' median estimates align with this path, citing unfavorable base effects and potential monsoon disruptions into the second half of the year. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward the upper range, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below 3.75%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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