Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while IAEA reports confirm sustained loss of safeguards continuity and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment activities into 2026. Iran's large 60% enriched stockpile remains unaccounted for in full and appears inaccessible under rubble, with officials stating no recovery plans. These developments, alongside repeated IAEA noncompliance findings and diplomatic isolation, underpin trader consensus that an Iranian nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Shifts could still arise from successful underground reconstruction, material recovery enabling rapid further enrichment, or major escalation prompting a weaponization decision within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% chance
$248,968 Vol.
$248,968 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
5% chance
$248,968 Vol.
$248,968 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while IAEA reports confirm sustained loss of safeguards continuity and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment activities into 2026. Iran's large 60% enriched stockpile remains unaccounted for in full and appears inaccessible under rubble, with officials stating no recovery plans. These developments, alongside repeated IAEA noncompliance findings and diplomatic isolation, underpin trader consensus that an Iranian nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Shifts could still arise from successful underground reconstruction, material recovery enabling rapid further enrichment, or major escalation prompting a weaponization decision within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$248,968End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while IAEA reports confirm sustained loss of safeguards continuity and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment activities into 2026. Iran's large 60% enriched stockpile remains unaccounted for in full and appears inaccessible under rubble, with officials stating no recovery plans. These developments, alongside repeated IAEA noncompliance findings and diplomatic isolation, underpin trader consensus that an Iranian nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Shifts could still arise from successful underground reconstruction, material recovery enabling rapid further enrichment, or major escalation prompting a weaponization decision within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$248,968End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, while IAEA reports confirm sustained loss of safeguards continuity and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment activities into 2026. Iran's large 60% enriched stockpile remains unaccounted for in full and appears inaccessible under rubble, with officials stating no recovery plans. These developments, alongside repeated IAEA noncompliance findings and diplomatic isolation, underpin trader consensus that an Iranian nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027. Shifts could still arise from successful underground reconstruction, material recovery enabling rapid further enrichment, or major escalation prompting a weaponization decision within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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