**Recent polling ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud winning substantially fewer seats than its current 32 in the outgoing legislature.** Most surveys from mid-to-late August place the party in the low-to-mid 20s (often 20–24), with only a minority of post-primaries polls showing higher figures around 30–32. This reflects sustained erosion of support amid the party’s four-year term in government, the impact of prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, and the emergence of stronger centrist and center-right challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has frequently led or tied Likud in recent surveys. The broader right-religious coalition bloc has also struggled to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in most averages, while opposition parties gain ground. Likud’s August primaries, which reinforced Netanyahu’s control over the slate, produced mixed results and did not reverse the downward polling trend in the majority of subsequent surveys. Traders therefore assign very high probability to seat losses because the polling evidence, bloc arithmetic, and voter shifts documented over recent months point to a smaller Likud faction in the 26th Knesset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated94% chance
$13,696 Vol.
$13,696 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
94% chance
$13,696 Vol.
$13,696 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud winning substantially fewer seats than its current 32 in the outgoing legislature.** Most surveys from mid-to-late August place the party in the low-to-mid 20s (often 20–24), with only a minority of post-primaries polls showing higher figures around 30–32. This reflects sustained erosion of support amid the party’s four-year term in government, the impact of prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, and the emergence of stronger centrist and center-right challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has frequently led or tied Likud in recent surveys.
The broader right-religious coalition bloc has also struggled to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in most averages, while opposition parties gain ground. Likud’s August primaries, which reinforced Netanyahu’s control over the slate, produced mixed results and did not reverse the downward polling trend in the majority of subsequent surveys. Traders therefore assign very high probability to seat losses because the polling evidence, bloc arithmetic, and voter shifts documented over recent months point to a smaller Likud faction in the 26th Knesset.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$13,696End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud winning substantially fewer seats than its current 32 in the outgoing legislature.** Most surveys from mid-to-late August place the party in the low-to-mid 20s (often 20–24), with only a minority of post-primaries polls showing higher figures around 30–32. This reflects sustained erosion of support amid the party’s four-year term in government, the impact of prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, and the emergence of stronger centrist and center-right challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has frequently led or tied Likud in recent surveys.
The broader right-religious coalition bloc has also struggled to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in most averages, while opposition parties gain ground. Likud’s August primaries, which reinforced Netanyahu’s control over the slate, produced mixed results and did not reverse the downward polling trend in the majority of subsequent surveys. Traders therefore assign very high probability to seat losses because the polling evidence, bloc arithmetic, and voter shifts documented over recent months point to a smaller Likud faction in the 26th Knesset.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$13,696End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud winning substantially fewer seats than its current 32 in the outgoing legislature.** Most surveys from mid-to-late August place the party in the low-to-mid 20s (often 20–24), with only a minority of post-primaries polls showing higher figures around 30–32. This reflects sustained erosion of support amid the party’s four-year term in government, the impact of prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and with Iran, and the emergence of stronger centrist and center-right challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has frequently led or tied Likud in recent surveys. The broader right-religious coalition bloc has also struggled to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in most averages, while opposition parties gain ground. Likud’s August primaries, which reinforced Netanyahu’s control over the slate, produced mixed results and did not reverse the downward polling trend in the majority of subsequent surveys. Traders therefore assign very high probability to seat losses because the polling evidence, bloc arithmetic, and voter shifts documented over recent months point to a smaller Likud faction in the 26th Knesset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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