Skip to main content
icon for Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
Finance·Japan

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

icon for Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
Finance·Japan

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9% 49.5%

2.0-2.4% 49%

3.0-3.4% 3.5%

2.5-2.9% 1.4%

Polymarket

$38,554 Vol.

≤1.9% 49.5%

2.0-2.4% 49%

3.0-3.4% 3.5%

2.5-2.9% 1.4%

Polymarket

$38,554 Vol.

≤1.9%

$18,313 Vol.

50%

2.0-2.4%

$10,751 Vol.

49%

2.5-2.9%

$5,372 Vol.

1%

3.0-3.4%

$1,488 Vol.

3%

3.5-3.9%

$1,253 Vol.

1%

4.0%+

$1,377 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent July 2026 data showed Japan’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year, supported by a weaker yen and import-cost pass-through yet capped by energy subsidies that have kept readings below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for seven straight months. Trader consensus reflected in the near-even market-implied odds between ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% for full-year 2026 hinges on the balance between these temporary fiscal measures and persistent underlying pressures from wage growth, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and crude-oil volatility tied to Middle East tensions. BOJ projections anticipate acceleration above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, but downward revisions to earlier forecasts underscore the uncertainty created by policy offsets and base effects.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).

The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.

If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$38,554
End Date
Jan 22, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent July 2026 data showed Japan’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year, supported by a weaker yen and import-cost pass-through yet capped by energy subsidies that have kept readings below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for seven straight months. Trader consensus reflected in the near-even market-implied odds between ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% for full-year 2026 hinges on the balance between these temporary fiscal measures and persistent underlying pressures from wage growth, AI-driven semiconductor demand, and crude-oil volatility tied to Middle East tensions. BOJ projections anticipate acceleration above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026, but downward revisions to earlier forecasts underscore the uncertainty created by policy offsets and base effects.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).

The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.

If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$38,554
End Date
Jan 22, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Related

icon for Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?

Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?

54%
icon for Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

60%
icon for Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?

Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?

33%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "≤1.9%" at 50%, followed by "2.0-2.4%" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026" has generated $38.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026" is "≤1.9%" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2.0-2.4%" at 49%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.