Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Andrés Fontecilla 38%

Randy Legault-Rankin 30%

Derek Lefebvre 17%

Emil Parfyonov 7%

Polymarket
NEW

Andrés Fontecilla 38%

Randy Legault-Rankin 30%

Derek Lefebvre 17%

Emil Parfyonov 7%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Andrés Fontecilla

Andrés Fontecilla

$100 Vol.

38%

icon for Randy Legault-Rankin

Randy Legault-Rankin

$521 Vol.

30%

icon for Derek Lefebvre

Derek Lefebvre

$106 Vol.

17%

icon for Emil Parfyonov

Emil Parfyonov

$91 Vol.

7%

icon for Kelly Lazo de la Vega

Kelly Lazo de la Vega

$509 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**Andrés Fontecilla of Québec solidaire holds a narrow lead in the Laurier-Dorion riding for the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, with traders assigning him roughly even odds against a fragmented field.** As the incumbent since 2018, he benefits from established name recognition in the diverse Montreal riding covering Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension, where QS has secured strong pluralities in recent cycles amid local priorities such as housing affordability, immigration integration, and public services. The multi-party contest features Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin, PQ’s Kelly Lazo de la Vega, CAQ’s Emil Parfyonov, and Conservative Derek Lefebvre, creating potential vote splitting that sustains close implied probabilities. Provincial polling trends showing competition among the PQ, CAQ, and Liberals have not yet produced riding-specific shifts, keeping the outcome sensitive to turnout among urban and newcomer voters. Nominations close September 17, after which localized campaigning and any late polling could widen or narrow the gap before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,327
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**Andrés Fontecilla of Québec solidaire holds a narrow lead in the Laurier-Dorion riding for the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, with traders assigning him roughly even odds against a fragmented field.** As the incumbent since 2018, he benefits from established name recognition in the diverse Montreal riding covering Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension, where QS has secured strong pluralities in recent cycles amid local priorities such as housing affordability, immigration integration, and public services. The multi-party contest features Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin, PQ’s Kelly Lazo de la Vega, CAQ’s Emil Parfyonov, and Conservative Derek Lefebvre, creating potential vote splitting that sustains close implied probabilities. Provincial polling trends showing competition among the PQ, CAQ, and Liberals have not yet produced riding-specific shifts, keeping the outcome sensitive to turnout among urban and newcomer voters. Nominations close September 17, after which localized campaigning and any late polling could widen or narrow the gap before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,327
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

Related

icon for Will Chloé Fauchon win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Chloé Fauchon win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?

43%
icon for Will Sol Zanetti win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Sol Zanetti win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?

56%
icon for Will Guillaume Langlois win the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Guillaume Langlois win the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election?

42%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Andrés Fontecilla" at 38%, followed by "Randy Legault-Rankin" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Andrés Fontecilla" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Randy Legault-Rankin" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.