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icon for Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·International Election Props

Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·International Election Props

Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Marc-Antoine Bernier 35%

Marcos Archambault 24%

Anne-Sophie Roy 21%

Richard Bélanger 7%

Polymarket
NEW

Marc-Antoine Bernier 35%

Marcos Archambault 24%

Anne-Sophie Roy 21%

Richard Bélanger 7%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Marc-Antoine Bernier

Marc-Antoine Bernier

$20 Vol.

35%

icon for Marcos Archambault

Marcos Archambault

$0 Vol.

24%

icon for Anne-Sophie Roy

Anne-Sophie Roy

$0 Vol.

21%

icon for Richard Bélanger

Richard Bélanger

$490 Vol.

7%

icon for Chloé Fauchon

Chloé Fauchon

$46 Vol.

43%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The 2026 Quebec general election on October 5 features an open seat in Louis-Hébert after longtime CAQ incumbent Geneviève Guilbault stepped aside. Trader odds reflect a competitive three-way dynamic in the Capitale-Nationale riding, where CAQ candidate Marc-Antoine Bernier benefits from the party's recent local organization push but faces headwinds from provincial trends. PQ candidate Chloé Fauchon, an environmental lawyer announced months earlier, draws support from sovereignty-focused voters and opposition momentum. Conservative Marcos Archambault and other contenders split the remaining vote, keeping the contest fragmented. Late-August candidate announcements and the August 27 writ drop have kept probabilities closely bunched, with no dominant polling surge yet emerging to shift the implied probabilities ahead of nomination deadlines and the October vote.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$556
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The 2026 Quebec general election on October 5 features an open seat in Louis-Hébert after longtime CAQ incumbent Geneviève Guilbault stepped aside. Trader odds reflect a competitive three-way dynamic in the Capitale-Nationale riding, where CAQ candidate Marc-Antoine Bernier benefits from the party's recent local organization push but faces headwinds from provincial trends. PQ candidate Chloé Fauchon, an environmental lawyer announced months earlier, draws support from sovereignty-focused voters and opposition momentum. Conservative Marcos Archambault and other contenders split the remaining vote, keeping the contest fragmented. Late-August candidate announcements and the August 27 writ drop have kept probabilities closely bunched, with no dominant polling surge yet emerging to shift the implied probabilities ahead of nomination deadlines and the October vote.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$556
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Chloé Fauchon" at 43%, followed by "Marc-Antoine Bernier" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Chloé Fauchon" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marc-Antoine Bernier" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.