South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional immunity provisions that shield sitting presidents from most criminal proceedings, including prior election law and corruption cases tied to his time as mayor and opposition leader. Those matters have been suspended or delayed following his June 2025 election victory, with resumption expected only after his term concludes in 2030. No new indictments, legislative overrides, or qualifying events such as insurrection charges have emerged through August 2026 that would permit an arrest before year-end. Traders reflect this structural protection and the absence of extraordinary triggers in the 91.8% implied probability against arrest by 2027, consistent with patterns limiting legal exposure for incumbents absent major institutional shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
8% chance
$538,859 Vol.
$538,859 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8% chance
$538,859 Vol.
$538,859 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional immunity provisions that shield sitting presidents from most criminal proceedings, including prior election law and corruption cases tied to his time as mayor and opposition leader. Those matters have been suspended or delayed following his June 2025 election victory, with resumption expected only after his term concludes in 2030. No new indictments, legislative overrides, or qualifying events such as insurrection charges have emerged through August 2026 that would permit an arrest before year-end. Traders reflect this structural protection and the absence of extraordinary triggers in the 91.8% implied probability against arrest by 2027, consistent with patterns limiting legal exposure for incumbents absent major institutional shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$538,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional immunity provisions that shield sitting presidents from most criminal proceedings, including prior election law and corruption cases tied to his time as mayor and opposition leader. Those matters have been suspended or delayed following his June 2025 election victory, with resumption expected only after his term concludes in 2030. No new indictments, legislative overrides, or qualifying events such as insurrection charges have emerged through August 2026 that would permit an arrest before year-end. Traders reflect this structural protection and the absence of extraordinary triggers in the 91.8% implied probability against arrest by 2027, consistent with patterns limiting legal exposure for incumbents absent major institutional shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$538,859End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional immunity provisions that shield sitting presidents from most criminal proceedings, including prior election law and corruption cases tied to his time as mayor and opposition leader. Those matters have been suspended or delayed following his June 2025 election victory, with resumption expected only after his term concludes in 2030. No new indictments, legislative overrides, or qualifying events such as insurrection charges have emerged through August 2026 that would permit an arrest before year-end. Traders reflect this structural protection and the absence of extraordinary triggers in the 91.8% implied probability against arrest by 2027, consistent with patterns limiting legal exposure for incumbents absent major institutional shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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