**Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" Polymarket assigns the highest probabilities to John Brennan (around 30%) and figures such as Mahmoud Khalil or Anthony Fauci, with most other listed individuals below 20%.** These odds reflect ongoing congressional scrutiny, potential DOJ investigations into prior intelligence and public health matters, and enforcement patterns against activists or officials tied to past protests and policy decisions. Recent 2026 developments, including Senate appearances by former officials and court rulings on immigration-related detentions, have sustained focus on a small set of names without producing qualifying arrests to date. Broader enforcement actions against demonstrators and local officials illustrate active use of federal tools, yet the market prices remain low overall due to the short remaining window through December 31, 2026, and the high bar for arresting prominent former officeholders. No major new indictments directly tied to the listed individuals have shifted probabilities substantially in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$385,399 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
11%
John Brennan
23%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
17%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
27%
James Clapper
13%
Letitia James
13%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
2%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
2%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
12%
Kash Patel
2%
Brandon Johnson
13%
Lisa Cook
8%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$385,399 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$147,409 Vol.
11%
John Brennan
$20,678 Vol.
23%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$21,892 Vol.
17%
Adam Schiff
$16,402 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$29,104 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$9,716 Vol.
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,308 Vol.
27%
James Clapper
$6,726 Vol.
13%
Letitia James
$2,908 Vol.
13%
Hillary Clinton
$25,114 Vol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$2,548 Vol.
2%
Loretta Lynch
$2,376 Vol.
11%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$268 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$38,834 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,923 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$501 Vol.
2%
Pam Bondi
$2,027 Vol.
2%
Tom Homan
$40,051 Vol.
12%
Kash Patel
$564 Vol.
2%
Brandon Johnson
$3,197 Vol.
13%
Lisa Cook
$3,374 Vol.
8%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$7,381 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" Polymarket assigns the highest probabilities to John Brennan (around 30%) and figures such as Mahmoud Khalil or Anthony Fauci, with most other listed individuals below 20%.** These odds reflect ongoing congressional scrutiny, potential DOJ investigations into prior intelligence and public health matters, and enforcement patterns against activists or officials tied to past protests and policy decisions. Recent 2026 developments, including Senate appearances by former officials and court rulings on immigration-related detentions, have sustained focus on a small set of names without producing qualifying arrests to date. Broader enforcement actions against demonstrators and local officials illustrate active use of federal tools, yet the market prices remain low overall due to the short remaining window through December 31, 2026, and the high bar for arresting prominent former officeholders. No major new indictments directly tied to the listed individuals have shifted probabilities substantially in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$385,399Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" Polymarket assigns the highest probabilities to John Brennan (around 30%) and figures such as Mahmoud Khalil or Anthony Fauci, with most other listed individuals below 20%.** These odds reflect ongoing congressional scrutiny, potential DOJ investigations into prior intelligence and public health matters, and enforcement patterns against activists or officials tied to past protests and policy decisions. Recent 2026 developments, including Senate appearances by former officials and court rulings on immigration-related detentions, have sustained focus on a small set of names without producing qualifying arrests to date. Broader enforcement actions against demonstrators and local officials illustrate active use of federal tools, yet the market prices remain low overall due to the short remaining window through December 31, 2026, and the high bar for arresting prominent former officeholders. No major new indictments directly tied to the listed individuals have shifted probabilities substantially in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$385,399Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027?" Polymarket assigns the highest probabilities to John Brennan (around 30%) and figures such as Mahmoud Khalil or Anthony Fauci, with most other listed individuals below 20%.** These odds reflect ongoing congressional scrutiny, potential DOJ investigations into prior intelligence and public health matters, and enforcement patterns against activists or officials tied to past protests and policy decisions. Recent 2026 developments, including Senate appearances by former officials and court rulings on immigration-related detentions, have sustained focus on a small set of names without producing qualifying arrests to date. Broader enforcement actions against demonstrators and local officials illustrate active use of federal tools, yet the market prices remain low overall due to the short remaining window through December 31, 2026, and the high bar for arresting prominent former officeholders. No major new indictments directly tied to the listed individuals have shifted probabilities substantially in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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