Forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and a weak frontal system drives the evenly matched trader odds for Toronto’s August 27 minimum temperature. Environment Canada guidance points to a clear night low near 15 °C after daytime highs around 26 °C and scattered showers, yet ensemble models diverge on the timing and extent of clearing, which controls how much heat escapes to space. Light southwesterly winds early in the period could limit surface cooling, while a shift to northwesterly flow later favors sharper drops. Historical late-August climatology places typical minima near 17 °C, so traders weigh the balance between potential sub-15 °C readings if skies clear fully and milder outcomes near 18–20 °C if lingering moisture or wind persists. Updated model runs and local observations tonight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 27?
15°C 49%
14°C 42%
22°C 42%
13°C or below 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
34%
14°C
42%
15°C
49%
16°C
25%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
24%
20°C
21%
21°C
25%
22°C
42%
23°C or higher
34%
15°C 49%
14°C 42%
22°C 42%
13°C or below 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
$5 Vol.
34%
14°C
$5 Vol.
42%
15°C
$5 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$20 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
25%
22°C
$5 Vol.
42%
23°C or higher
$5 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and a weak frontal system drives the evenly matched trader odds for Toronto’s August 27 minimum temperature. Environment Canada guidance points to a clear night low near 15 °C after daytime highs around 26 °C and scattered showers, yet ensemble models diverge on the timing and extent of clearing, which controls how much heat escapes to space. Light southwesterly winds early in the period could limit surface cooling, while a shift to northwesterly flow later favors sharper drops. Historical late-August climatology places typical minima near 17 °C, so traders weigh the balance between potential sub-15 °C readings if skies clear fully and milder outcomes near 18–20 °C if lingering moisture or wind persists. Updated model runs and local observations tonight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$45End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and a weak frontal system drives the evenly matched trader odds for Toronto’s August 27 minimum temperature. Environment Canada guidance points to a clear night low near 15 °C after daytime highs around 26 °C and scattered showers, yet ensemble models diverge on the timing and extent of clearing, which controls how much heat escapes to space. Light southwesterly winds early in the period could limit surface cooling, while a shift to northwesterly flow later favors sharper drops. Historical late-August climatology places typical minima near 17 °C, so traders weigh the balance between potential sub-15 °C readings if skies clear fully and milder outcomes near 18–20 °C if lingering moisture or wind persists. Updated model runs and local observations tonight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and a weak frontal system drives the evenly matched trader odds for Toronto’s August 27 minimum temperature. Environment Canada guidance points to a clear night low near 15 °C after daytime highs around 26 °C and scattered showers, yet ensemble models diverge on the timing and extent of clearing, which controls how much heat escapes to space. Light southwesterly winds early in the period could limit surface cooling, while a shift to northwesterly flow later favors sharper drops. Historical late-August climatology places typical minima near 17 °C, so traders weigh the balance between potential sub-15 °C readings if skies clear fully and milder outcomes near 18–20 °C if lingering moisture or wind persists. Updated model runs and local observations tonight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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