**US sanctions and the longstanding trade embargo continue to block American companies from operating in Cuba.** Despite Cuba’s June 2026 announcement allowing foreign franchises and private restaurant chains, McDonald’s has issued no plans or applications, and Cuban leaders have conditioned any entry on unspecified “equality” rules without confirming interest from the chain. Intensified Trump administration measures—including new designations on state entities, secondary sanctions risks for foreign partners, and fuel-related restrictions—have deepened economic isolation and deterred US investment. No bilateral progress has occurred, and resolution timing requires either embargo relief or specific licenses that remain unavailable. Trader consensus reflects these persistent legal and political barriers through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US sanctions and the longstanding trade embargo continue to block American companies from operating in Cuba.** Despite Cuba’s June 2026 announcement allowing foreign franchises and private restaurant chains, McDonald’s has issued no plans or applications, and Cuban leaders have conditioned any entry on unspecified “equality” rules without confirming interest from the chain. Intensified Trump administration measures—including new designations on state entities, secondary sanctions risks for foreign partners, and fuel-related restrictions—have deepened economic isolation and deterred US investment. No bilateral progress has occurred, and resolution timing requires either embargo relief or specific licenses that remain unavailable. Trader consensus reflects these persistent legal and political barriers through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,425End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**US sanctions and the longstanding trade embargo continue to block American companies from operating in Cuba.** Despite Cuba’s June 2026 announcement allowing foreign franchises and private restaurant chains, McDonald’s has issued no plans or applications, and Cuban leaders have conditioned any entry on unspecified “equality” rules without confirming interest from the chain. Intensified Trump administration measures—including new designations on state entities, secondary sanctions risks for foreign partners, and fuel-related restrictions—have deepened economic isolation and deterred US investment. No bilateral progress has occurred, and resolution timing requires either embargo relief or specific licenses that remain unavailable. Trader consensus reflects these persistent legal and political barriers through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,425End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US sanctions and the longstanding trade embargo continue to block American companies from operating in Cuba.** Despite Cuba’s June 2026 announcement allowing foreign franchises and private restaurant chains, McDonald’s has issued no plans or applications, and Cuban leaders have conditioned any entry on unspecified “equality” rules without confirming interest from the chain. Intensified Trump administration measures—including new designations on state entities, secondary sanctions risks for foreign partners, and fuel-related restrictions—have deepened economic isolation and deterred US investment. No bilateral progress has occurred, and resolution timing requires either embargo relief or specific licenses that remain unavailable. Trader consensus reflects these persistent legal and political barriers through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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