The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, launched via executive order in late January 2026, has imposed secondary tariffs on foreign oil suppliers to Cuba and targeted Cuba’s state oil company CUPET with additional sanctions in June. These measures followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies and have sharply reduced imports, exacerbating Cuba’s energy shortages and prompting limited case-by-case waivers for Russian shipments plus licenses for private-sector resale of Venezuelan crude. Ongoing bilateral talks and international calls for humanitarian relief have not yet produced broad sanction easing. Traders therefore assign moderate probability to any formal oil sanction relief announcement by year-end, reflecting the administration’s stated regime-change objectives and the absence of major policy reversals in the first eight months of tightened enforcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,696 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
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December 31
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$46,696 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, launched via executive order in late January 2026, has imposed secondary tariffs on foreign oil suppliers to Cuba and targeted Cuba’s state oil company CUPET with additional sanctions in June. These measures followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies and have sharply reduced imports, exacerbating Cuba’s energy shortages and prompting limited case-by-case waivers for Russian shipments plus licenses for private-sector resale of Venezuelan crude. Ongoing bilateral talks and international calls for humanitarian relief have not yet produced broad sanction easing. Traders therefore assign moderate probability to any formal oil sanction relief announcement by year-end, reflecting the administration’s stated regime-change objectives and the absence of major policy reversals in the first eight months of tightened enforcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$46,696End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, launched via executive order in late January 2026, has imposed secondary tariffs on foreign oil suppliers to Cuba and targeted Cuba’s state oil company CUPET with additional sanctions in June. These measures followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies and have sharply reduced imports, exacerbating Cuba’s energy shortages and prompting limited case-by-case waivers for Russian shipments plus licenses for private-sector resale of Venezuelan crude. Ongoing bilateral talks and international calls for humanitarian relief have not yet produced broad sanction easing. Traders therefore assign moderate probability to any formal oil sanction relief announcement by year-end, reflecting the administration’s stated regime-change objectives and the absence of major policy reversals in the first eight months of tightened enforcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,696End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, launched via executive order in late January 2026, has imposed secondary tariffs on foreign oil suppliers to Cuba and targeted Cuba’s state oil company CUPET with additional sanctions in June. These measures followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies and have sharply reduced imports, exacerbating Cuba’s energy shortages and prompting limited case-by-case waivers for Russian shipments plus licenses for private-sector resale of Venezuelan crude. Ongoing bilateral talks and international calls for humanitarian relief have not yet produced broad sanction easing. Traders therefore assign moderate probability to any formal oil sanction relief announcement by year-end, reflecting the administration’s stated regime-change objectives and the absence of major policy reversals in the first eight months of tightened enforcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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