Bruce Blakeman, the Republican Nassau County executive, holds an 86.5% implied probability of carrying the county in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, who sits at 13.5%. Multiple candidates and "other" options register at 50%. Blakeman’s position stems from his two terms leading the suburban Long Island county, where Republicans have secured the executive post in most recent cycles and he won reelection by double digits in 2025. Local polling, including a Newsday/Siena survey of Nassau voters, shows him ahead or competitive with Hochul, reflecting stronger Republican performance in the county than statewide. Hochul maintains a double-digit statewide lead in recent Siena and other surveys amid concerns over affordability and public safety, yet these dynamics have not shifted Nassau preferences. Campaign activity through late August, including stops and issue contrasts on taxes and immigration enforcement, has not altered the county-level edge for the home-county candidate. Minor-party entrants and write-ins remain negligible factors in Nassau results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Bruce Blakeman (R)
87%
Kathy Hochul (D)
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Bruce Blakeman (R)
$350 Vol.
87%
Kathy Hochul (D)
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Nassau County in the general election for Governor of New York, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.Bruce Blakeman, the Republican Nassau County executive, holds an 86.5% implied probability of carrying the county in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, who sits at 13.5%. Multiple candidates and "other" options register at 50%. Blakeman’s position stems from his two terms leading the suburban Long Island county, where Republicans have secured the executive post in most recent cycles and he won reelection by double digits in 2025. Local polling, including a Newsday/Siena survey of Nassau voters, shows him ahead or competitive with Hochul, reflecting stronger Republican performance in the county than statewide. Hochul maintains a double-digit statewide lead in recent Siena and other surveys amid concerns over affordability and public safety, yet these dynamics have not shifted Nassau preferences. Campaign activity through late August, including stops and issue contrasts on taxes and immigration enforcement, has not altered the county-level edge for the home-county candidate. Minor-party entrants and write-ins remain negligible factors in Nassau results.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Nassau County in the general election for Governor of New York, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
Volume
$350End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Nassau County in the general election for Governor of New York, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.Bruce Blakeman, the Republican Nassau County executive, holds an 86.5% implied probability of carrying the county in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, who sits at 13.5%. Multiple candidates and "other" options register at 50%. Blakeman’s position stems from his two terms leading the suburban Long Island county, where Republicans have secured the executive post in most recent cycles and he won reelection by double digits in 2025. Local polling, including a Newsday/Siena survey of Nassau voters, shows him ahead or competitive with Hochul, reflecting stronger Republican performance in the county than statewide. Hochul maintains a double-digit statewide lead in recent Siena and other surveys amid concerns over affordability and public safety, yet these dynamics have not shifted Nassau preferences. Campaign activity through late August, including stops and issue contrasts on taxes and immigration enforcement, has not altered the county-level edge for the home-county candidate. Minor-party entrants and write-ins remain negligible factors in Nassau results.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Nassau County in the general election for Governor of New York, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Candidates who are listed on multiple ballot lines under New York's fusion voting system will have their vote totals determined based on the sum of all votes for that candidate.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of New York, including the New York State Board of Elections and the government of Nassau County.
Volume
$350End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Bruce Blakeman, the Republican Nassau County executive, holds an 86.5% implied probability of carrying the county in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, who sits at 13.5%. Multiple candidates and "other" options register at 50%. Blakeman’s position stems from his two terms leading the suburban Long Island county, where Republicans have secured the executive post in most recent cycles and he won reelection by double digits in 2025. Local polling, including a Newsday/Siena survey of Nassau voters, shows him ahead or competitive with Hochul, reflecting stronger Republican performance in the county than statewide. Hochul maintains a double-digit statewide lead in recent Siena and other surveys amid concerns over affordability and public safety, yet these dynamics have not shifted Nassau preferences. Campaign activity through late August, including stops and issue contrasts on taxes and immigration enforcement, has not altered the county-level edge for the home-county candidate. Minor-party entrants and write-ins remain negligible factors in Nassau results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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