OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CFO Sarah Friar’s August 20 statement confirming a 2027 IPO target—or sooner if revenue inflects—anchor trader focus on whether the debut market cap clears key thresholds above its reaffirmed $852 billion private valuation. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $40 billion, with Q2 revenue at $6.7 billion, yet it continues posting substantial GAAP losses that pressure valuation multiples. CEO Sam Altman has signaled unwillingness to accept a listing below $1 trillion, while volatile tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance have shifted timing expectations later. Traders weigh upcoming catalysts such as potential public S-1 amendments, Q3 results, and broader equity risk appetite against the $122 billion March funding round that set the current benchmark.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,521,013 Vol.
$1,521,013 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
$800B
83%
$1T
76%
$1.2T
61%
$1.4T
53%
$1.6T
42%
$1,521,013 Vol.
$1,521,013 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
$800B
$107,749 Vol.
83%
$1T
$1,046,743 Vol.
76%
$1.2T
$248,690 Vol.
61%
$1.4T
$68,509 Vol.
53%
$1.6T
$49,323 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CFO Sarah Friar’s August 20 statement confirming a 2027 IPO target—or sooner if revenue inflects—anchor trader focus on whether the debut market cap clears key thresholds above its reaffirmed $852 billion private valuation. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $40 billion, with Q2 revenue at $6.7 billion, yet it continues posting substantial GAAP losses that pressure valuation multiples. CEO Sam Altman has signaled unwillingness to accept a listing below $1 trillion, while volatile tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance have shifted timing expectations later. Traders weigh upcoming catalysts such as potential public S-1 amendments, Q3 results, and broader equity risk appetite against the $122 billion March funding round that set the current benchmark.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,521,013End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CFO Sarah Friar’s August 20 statement confirming a 2027 IPO target—or sooner if revenue inflects—anchor trader focus on whether the debut market cap clears key thresholds above its reaffirmed $852 billion private valuation. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $40 billion, with Q2 revenue at $6.7 billion, yet it continues posting substantial GAAP losses that pressure valuation multiples. CEO Sam Altman has signaled unwillingness to accept a listing below $1 trillion, while volatile tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance have shifted timing expectations later. Traders weigh upcoming catalysts such as potential public S-1 amendments, Q3 results, and broader equity risk appetite against the $122 billion March funding round that set the current benchmark.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Volume
$1,521,013End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CFO Sarah Friar’s August 20 statement confirming a 2027 IPO target—or sooner if revenue inflects—anchor trader focus on whether the debut market cap clears key thresholds above its reaffirmed $852 billion private valuation. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has surpassed $40 billion, with Q2 revenue at $6.7 billion, yet it continues posting substantial GAAP losses that pressure valuation multiples. CEO Sam Altman has signaled unwillingness to accept a listing below $1 trillion, while volatile tech markets and SpaceX’s post-IPO performance have shifted timing expectations later. Traders weigh upcoming catalysts such as potential public S-1 amendments, Q3 results, and broader equity risk appetite against the $122 billion March funding round that set the current benchmark.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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