OpenAI’s $40 billion annualized revenue run rate—roughly double its December 2025 level—combined with the $122 billion March 2026 funding round that set an $852 billion private valuation, underpins trader consensus for a 2027 IPO at elevated levels. CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus target, reinforced by recent CFO comments that timing could accelerate with sustained growth, has shifted focus from a possible late-2026 listing toward a later debut that could command premium public-market multiples. Heavy compute spending and operating losses remain offset by massive committed capital and strategic backing from Nvidia, Amazon, and SoftBank. Market-implied odds of 41.8% for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion reflect these expansion dynamics and the precedent of AI peers trading at substantial premiums to private marks, while the 13.4% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 signals limited near-term resolution risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 41.8%
1.25T–1.5T 20%
1T–1.25T 19.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 13.4%
$115,993 Vol.
$115,993 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
8%
1T–1.25T
19%
1.25T–1.5T
20%
1.5T+
42%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
13%
1.5T+ 41.8%
1.25T–1.5T 20%
1T–1.25T 19.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 13.4%
$115,993 Vol.
$115,993 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
$8,567 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$11,074 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$12,229 Vol.
8%
1T–1.25T
$17,659 Vol.
19%
1.25T–1.5T
$10,900 Vol.
20%
1.5T+
$30,356 Vol.
42%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$25,210 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s $40 billion annualized revenue run rate—roughly double its December 2025 level—combined with the $122 billion March 2026 funding round that set an $852 billion private valuation, underpins trader consensus for a 2027 IPO at elevated levels. CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus target, reinforced by recent CFO comments that timing could accelerate with sustained growth, has shifted focus from a possible late-2026 listing toward a later debut that could command premium public-market multiples. Heavy compute spending and operating losses remain offset by massive committed capital and strategic backing from Nvidia, Amazon, and SoftBank. Market-implied odds of 41.8% for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion reflect these expansion dynamics and the precedent of AI peers trading at substantial premiums to private marks, while the 13.4% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 signals limited near-term resolution risk.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$115,993End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s $40 billion annualized revenue run rate—roughly double its December 2025 level—combined with the $122 billion March 2026 funding round that set an $852 billion private valuation, underpins trader consensus for a 2027 IPO at elevated levels. CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus target, reinforced by recent CFO comments that timing could accelerate with sustained growth, has shifted focus from a possible late-2026 listing toward a later debut that could command premium public-market multiples. Heavy compute spending and operating losses remain offset by massive committed capital and strategic backing from Nvidia, Amazon, and SoftBank. Market-implied odds of 41.8% for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion reflect these expansion dynamics and the precedent of AI peers trading at substantial premiums to private marks, while the 13.4% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 signals limited near-term resolution risk.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$115,993End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s $40 billion annualized revenue run rate—roughly double its December 2025 level—combined with the $122 billion March 2026 funding round that set an $852 billion private valuation, underpins trader consensus for a 2027 IPO at elevated levels. CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion-plus target, reinforced by recent CFO comments that timing could accelerate with sustained growth, has shifted focus from a possible late-2026 listing toward a later debut that could command premium public-market multiples. Heavy compute spending and operating losses remain offset by massive committed capital and strategic backing from Nvidia, Amazon, and SoftBank. Market-implied odds of 41.8% for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion reflect these expansion dynamics and the precedent of AI peers trading at substantial premiums to private marks, while the 13.4% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 signals limited near-term resolution risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions