Many new head coaches entering the 2026 season, including John Harbaugh with the Giants after his long Ravens tenure, Jesse Minter replacing him in Baltimore, Robert Saleh with the Titans, and Joe Brady with the Bills, anchor the early market. Traders price Harbaugh highest at 11% implied probability due to his proven resume and the Giants’ roster talent, while Minter, Kellen Moore in New Orleans, and others sit tightly bunched between roughly 3-7% because the AP award historically favors first-year or second-year leaders who exceed modest expectations through roster fit, scheme installation, and turnaround narratives rather than guaranteed success. With a wide field and no dominant preseason favorite, the competitive spread reflects uncertainty over which coaching change will generate the strongest media and voter story by season’s end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJohn Harbaugh 11%
Joe Brady 9%
Jesse Minter 9%
Kevin Stefanski 9%
John Harbaugh
11%
Joe Brady
9%
Jesse Minter
9%
Kevin Stefanski
9%
Robert Saleh
8%
Kellen Moore
6%
Ben Johnson
6%
Shane Steichen
3%
Andy Reid
3%
John Harbaugh 11%
Joe Brady 9%
Jesse Minter 9%
Kevin Stefanski 9%
John Harbaugh
11%
Joe Brady
9%
Jesse Minter
9%
Kevin Stefanski
9%
Robert Saleh
8%
Kellen Moore
6%
Ben Johnson
6%
Shane Steichen
3%
Andy Reid
3%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the coach whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 9:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the coach whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Many new head coaches entering the 2026 season, including John Harbaugh with the Giants after his long Ravens tenure, Jesse Minter replacing him in Baltimore, Robert Saleh with the Titans, and Joe Brady with the Bills, anchor the early market. Traders price Harbaugh highest at 11% implied probability due to his proven resume and the Giants’ roster talent, while Minter, Kellen Moore in New Orleans, and others sit tightly bunched between roughly 3-7% because the AP award historically favors first-year or second-year leaders who exceed modest expectations through roster fit, scheme installation, and turnaround narratives rather than guaranteed success. With a wide field and no dominant preseason favorite, the competitive spread reflects uncertainty over which coaching change will generate the strongest media and voter story by season’s end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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