Sinner's late withdrawal with a right knee injury has opened the men's draw at the 2026 US Open, removing the clear pre-tournament favorite and elevating implied probabilities for several contenders to reach the final. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz remains the consensus leader despite a four-month absence with a right wrist injury and no warm-up events, while Alexander Zverev benefits from recent Grand Slam success and stronger recent form. Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton, and Taylor Fritz follow as primary threats on the hard courts, with home-soil momentum and hard-court results supporting American chances. The best-of-five format and draw position will heavily influence which players advance through the later rounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 12, 2026
Carlos Alcaraz
43%
Alexander Zverev
32%
Novak Djokovic
18%
Ben Shelton
14%
Arthur Fils
14%
Taylor Fritz
10%
Daniil Medvedev
9%
Jakub Mensik
8%
Alex de Minaur
8%
Felix Auger-Aliassime
6%
Brandon Nakashima
6%
Casper Ruud
6%
Alexander Bublik
5%
Flavio Cobolli
5%
Lorenzo Musetti
5%
Jiri Lehecka
5%
Andrey Rublev
5%
Joao Fonseca
5%
Cameron Norrie
5%
Frances Tiafoe
4%
Rafael Jodar
4%
Tommy Paul
4%
Francisco Cerundolo
4%
Alexander Blockx
4%
Zizou Bergs
4%
Learner Tien
3%
Luciano Darderi
3%
Valentin Vacherot
3%
Alejandro Tabilo
3%
Arthur Rinderknech
3%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
3%
Michael Zheng
3%
Carlos Taberner
3%
J.J. Wolf
3%
Thanasi Kokkinakis
3%
Filip Misolic
3%
Darwin Blanch
3%
Sebastian Gorzny
3%
Jack Kennedy
3%
Juncheng Shang
2%
Patrick Kypson
2%
Gael Monfils
2%
Dane Sweeny
2%
Ugo Humbert
2%
$3,047 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
$42 Vol.
43%
Alexander Zverev
$104 Vol.
32%
Novak Djokovic
$24 Vol.
18%
Ben Shelton
$23 Vol.
14%
Arthur Fils
$43 Vol.
14%
Taylor Fritz
$22 Vol.
10%
Daniil Medvedev
$0 Vol.
9%
Jakub Mensik
$22 Vol.
8%
Alex de Minaur
$21 Vol.
8%
Felix Auger-Aliassime
$0 Vol.
6%
Brandon Nakashima
$0 Vol.
6%
Casper Ruud
$0 Vol.
6%
Alexander Bublik
$0 Vol.
5%
Flavio Cobolli
$21 Vol.
5%
Lorenzo Musetti
$0 Vol.
5%
Jiri Lehecka
$21 Vol.
5%
Andrey Rublev
$0 Vol.
5%
Joao Fonseca
$0 Vol.
5%
Cameron Norrie
$0 Vol.
5%
Frances Tiafoe
$0 Vol.
4%
Rafael Jodar
$0 Vol.
4%
Tommy Paul
$0 Vol.
4%
Francisco Cerundolo
$0 Vol.
4%
Alexander Blockx
$0 Vol.
4%
Zizou Bergs
$41 Vol.
4%
Learner Tien
$0 Vol.
3%
Luciano Darderi
$0 Vol.
3%
Valentin Vacherot
$0 Vol.
3%
Alejandro Tabilo
$0 Vol.
3%
Arthur Rinderknech
$40 Vol.
3%
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
$0 Vol.
3%
Michael Zheng
$204 Vol.
3%
Carlos Taberner
$102 Vol.
3%
J.J. Wolf
$142 Vol.
3%
Thanasi Kokkinakis
$142 Vol.
3%
Filip Misolic
$122 Vol.
3%
Darwin Blanch
$268 Vol.
3%
Sebastian Gorzny
$268 Vol.
3%
Jack Kennedy
$268 Vol.
3%
Juncheng Shang
$182 Vol.
2%
Patrick Kypson
$268 Vol.
2%
Gael Monfils
$168 Vol.
2%
Dane Sweeny
$295 Vol.
2%
Ugo Humbert
$193 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sinner's late withdrawal with a right knee injury has opened the men's draw at the 2026 US Open, removing the clear pre-tournament favorite and elevating implied probabilities for several contenders to reach the final. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz remains the consensus leader despite a four-month absence with a right wrist injury and no warm-up events, while Alexander Zverev benefits from recent Grand Slam success and stronger recent form. Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton, and Taylor Fritz follow as primary threats on the hard courts, with home-soil momentum and hard-court results supporting American chances. The best-of-five format and draw position will heavily influence which players advance through the later rounds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$3,047End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sinner's late withdrawal with a right knee injury has opened the men's draw at the 2026 US Open, removing the clear pre-tournament favorite and elevating implied probabilities for several contenders to reach the final. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz remains the consensus leader despite a four-month absence with a right wrist injury and no warm-up events, while Alexander Zverev benefits from recent Grand Slam success and stronger recent form. Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton, and Taylor Fritz follow as primary threats on the hard courts, with home-soil momentum and hard-court results supporting American chances. The best-of-five format and draw position will heavily influence which players advance through the later rounds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,047End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sinner's late withdrawal with a right knee injury has opened the men's draw at the 2026 US Open, removing the clear pre-tournament favorite and elevating implied probabilities for several contenders to reach the final. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz remains the consensus leader despite a four-month absence with a right wrist injury and no warm-up events, while Alexander Zverev benefits from recent Grand Slam success and stronger recent form. Novak Djokovic, Ben Shelton, and Taylor Fritz follow as primary threats on the hard courts, with home-soil momentum and hard-court results supporting American chances. The best-of-five format and draw position will heavily influence which players advance through the later rounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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