**The signed US-Saudi 123 agreement faces a mandatory congressional review of at least 90 legislative days before it can take effect, with no confirmation that the pact has even been formally transmitted as of late August 2026.** President Trump’s subsequent public statements linking approval to Saudi normalization with Israel under the Abraham Accords introduced further procedural and diplomatic hurdles, given Riyadh’s longstanding conditions tied to Palestinian statehood. The deal’s provisions permitting potential uranium enrichment and omitting the IAEA Additional Protocol have also drawn scrutiny from nonproliferation advocates and some lawmakers, raising the prospect of a disapproval resolution. With session-day counting and competing legislative priorities, completion of all steps required for entry into force before year-end remains uncertain, supporting traders’ 78% probability on “No.”