Recent Zillow Home Value Index data through July 31, 2026, placed Chicago's typical home value at approximately $338,000, up 4.5% year-over-year amid persistent low inventory and steady buyer demand. This underpins the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around the $335K–$345K range, where the two leading buckets together exceed 70% probability. Key differentiating factors include ongoing mortgage rates near 6%, seasonal late-summer transaction patterns, and national forecasts for moderated price growth in the second half of 2026. Limited new listings and resilient Midwest employment conditions continue to support incremental gains, while any acceleration in rate relief or inventory releases could shift resolution toward the upper end of current consensus before the September 30 measurement date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$335K - $340K 38%
$340K - $345K 31%
$345K+ 15%
$330K - $335K 11.1%
$83,127 Vol.
$83,127 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$320K
1%
$320K - $325K
1%
$325K - $330K
5%
$330K - $335K
11%
$335K - $340K
38%
$340K - $345K
31%
$345K+
15%
$335K - $340K 38%
$340K - $345K 31%
$345K+ 15%
$330K - $335K 11.1%
$83,127 Vol.
$83,127 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$320K
$2,455 Vol.
1%
$320K - $325K
$2,335 Vol.
1%
$325K - $330K
$3,039 Vol.
5%
$330K - $335K
$7,534 Vol.
11%
$335K - $340K
$16,073 Vol.
38%
$340K - $345K
$20,864 Vol.
31%
$345K+
$30,827 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/54)Recent Zillow Home Value Index data through July 31, 2026, placed Chicago's typical home value at approximately $338,000, up 4.5% year-over-year amid persistent low inventory and steady buyer demand. This underpins the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around the $335K–$345K range, where the two leading buckets together exceed 70% probability. Key differentiating factors include ongoing mortgage rates near 6%, seasonal late-summer transaction patterns, and national forecasts for moderated price growth in the second half of 2026. Limited new listings and resilient Midwest employment conditions continue to support incremental gains, while any acceleration in rate relief or inventory releases could shift resolution toward the upper end of current consensus before the September 30 measurement date.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/54)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/54)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$83,127End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/54)Recent Zillow Home Value Index data through July 31, 2026, placed Chicago's typical home value at approximately $338,000, up 4.5% year-over-year amid persistent low inventory and steady buyer demand. This underpins the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around the $335K–$345K range, where the two leading buckets together exceed 70% probability. Key differentiating factors include ongoing mortgage rates near 6%, seasonal late-summer transaction patterns, and national forecasts for moderated price growth in the second half of 2026. Limited new listings and resilient Midwest employment conditions continue to support incremental gains, while any acceleration in rate relief or inventory releases could shift resolution toward the upper end of current consensus before the September 30 measurement date.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/54)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/54)
Volume
$83,127End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Zillow Home Value Index data through July 31, 2026, placed Chicago's typical home value at approximately $338,000, up 4.5% year-over-year amid persistent low inventory and steady buyer demand. This underpins the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around the $335K–$345K range, where the two leading buckets together exceed 70% probability. Key differentiating factors include ongoing mortgage rates near 6%, seasonal late-summer transaction patterns, and national forecasts for moderated price growth in the second half of 2026. Limited new listings and resilient Midwest employment conditions continue to support incremental gains, while any acceleration in rate relief or inventory releases could shift resolution toward the upper end of current consensus before the September 30 measurement date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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