Skip to main content
icon for Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
Finance·Freddie Mac

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

icon for Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
Finance·Freddie Mac

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

$50,761 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$50,761 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 7.50%

$0 Vol.

38%

↑ 7.25%

$31 Vol.

53%

↑ 7.00%

$64 Vol.

49%

↑ 6.75%

$181 Vol.

84%

↓ 6.50%

$0 Vol.

43%

↓ 6.25%

$0 Vol.

41%

↓ 6.00%

$0 Vol.

44%

↓ 5.90%

$6,201 Vol.

18%

↓ 5.70%

$7,209 Vol.

2%

↓ 5.50%

$72 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates stand near 6.65% as of the August 20, 2026 Freddie Mac survey, tracking closely with 10-year Treasury yields amid persistent inflation readings and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate path exerts indirect influence through expectations for monetary policy easing, while mortgage spreads over Treasuries remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. Recent modest declines reflect softer weekly data and liquidity support in the bond market, though forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association point to averages holding in the mid-6% range through year-end 2026 rather than sharp drops. Key upcoming releases on CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC communications will shape trader assessments of whether rates breach specific thresholds this year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.

This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Volume
$50,761
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates stand near 6.65% as of the August 20, 2026 Freddie Mac survey, tracking closely with 10-year Treasury yields amid persistent inflation readings and a resilient labor market. The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate path exerts indirect influence through expectations for monetary policy easing, while mortgage spreads over Treasuries remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. Recent modest declines reflect softer weekly data and liquidity support in the bond market, though forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association point to averages holding in the mid-6% range through year-end 2026 rather than sharp drops. Key upcoming releases on CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and FOMC communications will shape trader assessments of whether rates breach specific thresholds this year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.

This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Volume
$50,761
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 11:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

Related

icon for Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

12%
icon for Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

55%
icon for Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

23%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ 6.50%" at 100%, followed by "↑ 6.30%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?" has generated $50.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?" is "↑ 6.50%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ 6.30%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.