The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25% through six consecutive meetings in 2026, most recently on July 15, underpins the 72% market-implied probability against any hike this year. Persistent economic slack, modest GDP growth forecasts of just 0.7% for 2026, and core inflation measures near the 2% target outweigh temporary headline CPI pressures near 3% from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. Futures pricing and economist polls similarly anticipate no change through December, with any tightening likely deferred to 2027 absent stronger demand signals. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 2 announcement and October Monetary Policy Report, which will test whether growth momentum or persistent geopolitical risks alter the neutral policy stance.