Recent housing data for the San Francisco metro area show median home values clustered near or below the $1.176 million threshold, reflecting tight inventory and sustained demand from the AI and tech sectors that have lifted prices 11-15% year-over-year through mid-2026. Trader consensus, evidenced by the 85.5% implied probability on the lowest outcome, prices in minimal near-term appreciation over the next five weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns and the limited time remaining before September 30 resolution. Broader Bay Area metrics from sources such as Zillow and Redfin indicate values around $1.17-1.4 million recently, with mortgage rate sensitivity and constrained supply acting as primary upward drivers but unlikely to produce a decisive move in the narrow window. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as a high-probability continuation of current levels rather than a sharp inflection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$1.176M 86%
$1.176M - $1.198M 9%
$1.198M - $1.220M 5.7%
$1.242M - $1.264M <1%
$39,969 Vol.
$39,969 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$1.176M
86%
$1.176M - $1.198M
9%
$1.198M - $1.220M
6%
$1.220M - $1.242M
1%
$1.242M - $1.264M
1%
$1.264M - $1.284M
1%
$1.284M+
<1%
<$1.176M 86%
$1.176M - $1.198M 9%
$1.198M - $1.220M 5.7%
$1.242M - $1.264M <1%
$39,969 Vol.
$39,969 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$1.176M
$16,684 Vol.
86%
$1.176M - $1.198M
$14,130 Vol.
9%
$1.198M - $1.220M
$1,980 Vol.
6%
$1.220M - $1.242M
$1,952 Vol.
1%
$1.242M - $1.264M
$3,005 Vol.
1%
$1.264M - $1.284M
$1,048 Vol.
1%
$1.284M+
$1,171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent housing data for the San Francisco metro area show median home values clustered near or below the $1.176 million threshold, reflecting tight inventory and sustained demand from the AI and tech sectors that have lifted prices 11-15% year-over-year through mid-2026. Trader consensus, evidenced by the 85.5% implied probability on the lowest outcome, prices in minimal near-term appreciation over the next five weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns and the limited time remaining before September 30 resolution. Broader Bay Area metrics from sources such as Zillow and Redfin indicate values around $1.17-1.4 million recently, with mortgage rate sensitivity and constrained supply acting as primary upward drivers but unlikely to produce a decisive move in the narrow window. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as a high-probability continuation of current levels rather than a sharp inflection.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$39,969End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent housing data for the San Francisco metro area show median home values clustered near or below the $1.176 million threshold, reflecting tight inventory and sustained demand from the AI and tech sectors that have lifted prices 11-15% year-over-year through mid-2026. Trader consensus, evidenced by the 85.5% implied probability on the lowest outcome, prices in minimal near-term appreciation over the next five weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns and the limited time remaining before September 30 resolution. Broader Bay Area metrics from sources such as Zillow and Redfin indicate values around $1.17-1.4 million recently, with mortgage rate sensitivity and constrained supply acting as primary upward drivers but unlikely to produce a decisive move in the narrow window. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as a high-probability continuation of current levels rather than a sharp inflection.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$39,969End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent housing data for the San Francisco metro area show median home values clustered near or below the $1.176 million threshold, reflecting tight inventory and sustained demand from the AI and tech sectors that have lifted prices 11-15% year-over-year through mid-2026. Trader consensus, evidenced by the 85.5% implied probability on the lowest outcome, prices in minimal near-term appreciation over the next five weeks, consistent with typical seasonal patterns and the limited time remaining before September 30 resolution. Broader Bay Area metrics from sources such as Zillow and Redfin indicate values around $1.17-1.4 million recently, with mortgage rate sensitivity and constrained supply acting as primary upward drivers but unlikely to produce a decisive move in the narrow window. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as a high-probability continuation of current levels rather than a sharp inflection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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