Russia’s State Duma elections, scheduled for September 18–20 2026 under a mixed system of nationwide proportional representation (5% threshold for list seats) and single-member districts, are expected to return seats primarily to the established parliamentary parties. United Russia maintains a commanding lead in recent polls from state-affiliated pollsters, followed by CPRF, LDPR, New People, and A Just Russia—parties projected to clear the threshold and secure representation through both mechanisms. Yabloko’s federal list was disqualified by the Supreme Court in August following a legal challenge, eliminating one potential contender. Candidate registration closed with eleven exempt parties on the ballot, though smaller groups face structural barriers to reaching viable vote shares. Three-day voting and expanded remote options in select regions conclude the campaign in a tightly managed environment shaped by post-2022 political controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Rodina
97%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
95%

Russian Ecological Party “The Greens”
9%

Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice
7%
$2,843 Vol.

Rodina
97%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
95%

Russian Ecological Party “The Greens”
9%

Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.
These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.
These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s State Duma elections, scheduled for September 18–20 2026 under a mixed system of nationwide proportional representation (5% threshold for list seats) and single-member districts, are expected to return seats primarily to the established parliamentary parties. United Russia maintains a commanding lead in recent polls from state-affiliated pollsters, followed by CPRF, LDPR, New People, and A Just Russia—parties projected to clear the threshold and secure representation through both mechanisms. Yabloko’s federal list was disqualified by the Supreme Court in August following a legal challenge, eliminating one potential contender. Candidate registration closed with eleven exempt parties on the ballot, though smaller groups face structural barriers to reaching viable vote shares. Three-day voting and expanded remote options in select regions conclude the campaign in a tightly managed environment shaped by post-2022 political controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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