**State attorneys general lawsuits and a court-mandated pause have pushed any potential closing well into 2027.** After Paramount Skydance secured DOJ approval in June 2026 and EU clearance in July, a coalition of 12 states led by California filed an antitrust suit in mid-July alleging reduced competition in film, streaming, and cable. A federal judge issued a temporary restraining order, and the parties stipulated that the $111 billion deal cannot close until five days after a merits decision or June 1, 2027—whichever comes first. The antitrust trial is now scheduled for March 2027 in California, making completion by December 31, 2026, effectively impossible under the current court order. Paramount has cleared most international regulatory hurdles and won shareholder approval earlier in the year, but the ongoing litigation and associated ticking fees (escalating daily after September 30) create significant uncertainty. Traders view the timeline and legal barriers as decisive, with the 77% “No” probability reflecting the realistic chance that the deal either resolves in 2027 or faces further delays from appeals or remedies.