Recent hot August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise has shifted expectations sharply toward a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing an 85-90% probability. This policy catalyst, alongside the September 16 retail sales release and options expiration on September 18, is expected to drive elevated volatility for the S&P 500 during the week of September 14. With the index closing near 7,657 on September 11 after a rebound, traders are weighing the impact of tighter monetary policy on valuations against the clarity provided by the decision and any updates to the dot plot. Market-implied odds embed this near-term uncertainty in equity benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 18, 2026
↑ $795
50%
↑ $790
50%
↑ $785
50%
↑ $780
50%
↑ $775
50%
↑ $770
50%
↑ $765
50%
↓ $760
50%
↓ $755
50%
↓ $750
50%
↓ $745
50%
↓ $740
50%
↓ $735
50%
↓ $730
50%
$0.00 Vol.
↑ $795
$0 Vol.
50%
↑ $790
$0 Vol.
50%
↑ $785
$0 Vol.
50%
↑ $780
$0 Vol.
50%
↑ $775
$0 Vol.
50%
↑ $770
$0 Vol.
50%
↑ $765
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ $760
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ $755
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ $750
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ $745
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ $740
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ $735
$0 Vol.
50%
↓ $730
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 14 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Recent hot August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise has shifted expectations sharply toward a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing an 85-90% probability. This policy catalyst, alongside the September 16 retail sales release and options expiration on September 18, is expected to drive elevated volatility for the S&P 500 during the week of September 14. With the index closing near 7,657 on September 11 after a rebound, traders are weighing the impact of tighter monetary policy on valuations against the clarity provided by the decision and any updates to the dot plot. Market-implied odds embed this near-term uncertainty in equity benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 14 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 14 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Recent hot August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise has shifted expectations sharply toward a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing an 85-90% probability. This policy catalyst, alongside the September 16 retail sales release and options expiration on September 18, is expected to drive elevated volatility for the S&P 500 during the week of September 14. With the index closing near 7,657 on September 11 after a rebound, traders are weighing the impact of tighter monetary policy on valuations against the clarity provided by the decision and any updates to the dot plot. Market-implied odds embed this near-term uncertainty in equity benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 14 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hot August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise has shifted expectations sharply toward a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, with futures pricing an 85-90% probability. This policy catalyst, alongside the September 16 retail sales release and options expiration on September 18, is expected to drive elevated volatility for the S&P 500 during the week of September 14. With the index closing near 7,657 on September 11 after a rebound, traders are weighing the impact of tighter monetary policy on valuations against the clarity provided by the decision and any updates to the dot plot. Market-implied odds embed this near-term uncertainty in equity benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions