Tesla’s limited progress toward unsupervised robotaxi operations in California underpins the 83% market-implied probability of no launch by year-end. The company has not applied for required DMV autonomous vehicle testing or CPUC commercial permits, instead operating under a standard charter-party carrier license that mandates human drivers and classifies its service as Level 2 supervised driving. California’s finalized rules demand at least 50,000 autonomous miles with a safety driver followed by another 50,000 driverless before deployment authorization, a threshold Tesla has not approached after logging zero qualifying test miles for years. In contrast, competitors like Waymo recently secured broad CPUC approval for paid driverless rides across 18 counties. With only four months remaining, regulatory timelines and the absence of filed applications make a rapid shift in status improbable.