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Tech·AI

Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?

icon for Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
Tech·AI

Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$15,062 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$15,062 Vol.

Polymarket

Tampa, FL

$1,743 Vol.

95%

San Diego, CA

$597 Vol.

93%

Denver, CO

$495 Vol.

88%

Las Vegas, NV

$1,704 Vol.

85%

Charlotte, NC

$75 Vol.

58%

Sacramento, CA

$404 Vol.

57%

Philadelphia, PA

$0 Vol.

45%

Detroit, MI

$95 Vol.

42%

St. Louis, MO

$0 Vol.

40%

Baltimore, MD

$569 Vol.

25%

London, UK

$74 Vol.

24%

New York, NY

$399 Vol.

23%

Minneapolis, MN

$1,504 Vol.

20%

Seattle, WA

$99 Vol.

17%

Washington, DC

$1,126 Vol.

15%

Portland, OR

$2,295 Vol.

11%

Boston, MA

$2,957 Vol.

9%

Pittsburgh, PA

$104 Vol.

55%

New Orleans, LA

$61 Vol.

50%

Chicago, IL

$742 Vol.

39%

Tokyo, Japan

$20 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Waymo’s accelerated 2026 rollout of its sixth-generation Driver and new Ojai robotaxi fleet is the main factor shaping trader sentiment on cities launching by year-end. July announcements confirmed employee-only driverless operations starting in Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Tampa, with public access targeted for later 2026, while August CPUC approval opened the path for gradual service in Sacramento and broader California counties. Fleet scaling toward 5,000 Ojai vehicles, cold-weather validation in Detroit, and mapping in additional metros support expectations for several new public launches before December 31. Regulatory timelines, safety validation requirements, and competition from Zoox and Tesla remain key swing factors that could delay marginal markets.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.

A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber).

Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.

The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,062
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Waymo’s accelerated 2026 rollout of its sixth-generation Driver and new Ojai robotaxi fleet is the main factor shaping trader sentiment on cities launching by year-end. July announcements confirmed employee-only driverless operations starting in Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Tampa, with public access targeted for later 2026, while August CPUC approval opened the path for gradual service in Sacramento and broader California counties. Fleet scaling toward 5,000 Ojai vehicles, cold-weather validation in Detroit, and mapping in additional metros support expectations for several new public launches before December 31. Regulatory timelines, safety validation requirements, and competition from Zoox and Tesla remain key swing factors that could delay marginal markets.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.

A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber).

Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.

The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$15,062
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tampa, FL" at 95%, followed by "San Diego, CA" at 93%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?" has generated $15.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?" is "Tampa, FL" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "San Diego, CA" at 93%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.