The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after her second House impeachment on May 11 (257-25 vote), centers on four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery of education officials, and grave threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family. Trader consensus near 55.5% for conviction reflects the strong House majority, the Supreme Court’s August 5 dismissal of challenges to the process (ruling petitions moot once articles reached the Senate), and ongoing prosecution evidence presentation on fund misuse and related claims. At the same time, conviction requires 16 of 24 senator-judges, and Senate divisions—exacerbated by absences or detentions among some members—introduce uncertainty, while the defense frames the case as politically motivated and Duterte maintains her innocence. Hearings continue with prosecutors targeting a September evidence close, though the full schedule extends well into 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
55% chance
$11,086 Vol.
$11,086 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
55% chance
$11,086 Vol.
$11,086 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after her second House impeachment on May 11 (257-25 vote), centers on four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery of education officials, and grave threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family. Trader consensus near 55.5% for conviction reflects the strong House majority, the Supreme Court’s August 5 dismissal of challenges to the process (ruling petitions moot once articles reached the Senate), and ongoing prosecution evidence presentation on fund misuse and related claims. At the same time, conviction requires 16 of 24 senator-judges, and Senate divisions—exacerbated by absences or detentions among some members—introduce uncertainty, while the defense frames the case as politically motivated and Duterte maintains her innocence. Hearings continue with prosecutors targeting a September evidence close, though the full schedule extends well into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$11,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after her second House impeachment on May 11 (257-25 vote), centers on four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery of education officials, and grave threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family. Trader consensus near 55.5% for conviction reflects the strong House majority, the Supreme Court’s August 5 dismissal of challenges to the process (ruling petitions moot once articles reached the Senate), and ongoing prosecution evidence presentation on fund misuse and related claims. At the same time, conviction requires 16 of 24 senator-judges, and Senate divisions—exacerbated by absences or detentions among some members—introduce uncertainty, while the defense frames the case as politically motivated and Duterte maintains her innocence. Hearings continue with prosecutors targeting a September evidence close, though the full schedule extends well into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$11,086End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after her second House impeachment on May 11 (257-25 vote), centers on four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery of education officials, and grave threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family. Trader consensus near 55.5% for conviction reflects the strong House majority, the Supreme Court’s August 5 dismissal of challenges to the process (ruling petitions moot once articles reached the Senate), and ongoing prosecution evidence presentation on fund misuse and related claims. At the same time, conviction requires 16 of 24 senator-judges, and Senate divisions—exacerbated by absences or detentions among some members—introduce uncertainty, while the defense frames the case as politically motivated and Duterte maintains her innocence. Hearings continue with prosecutors targeting a September evidence close, though the full schedule extends well into 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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