**Trader consensus centers on the 40-64 tweet bracket (46.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s September 10-12 window because recent short-period settlements show him settling into a moderate posting rhythm of roughly 13-25 posts per day.** The prior week’s resolved outcomes, including a <40 result ending September 7 and a 65-89 finish for September 5, reflect steady but unspectacular activity without major political flare-ups, Tesla product news, or platform controversies to accelerate volume. Historical patterns indicate Musk’s output fluctuates sharply with external events, yet the current absence of high-engagement catalysts supports the market’s lean toward the lower-to-mid ranges. The 65-89 tier (28.5%) captures any modest uptick, while higher brackets remain thin as traders price in a quiet stretch ahead of the three-day period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 47%
<40 27%
65-89 24%
90-114 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
<40
27%
40-64
47%
65-89
24%
90-114
7%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 47%
<40 27%
65-89 24%
90-114 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
<40
$337 Vol.
27%
40-64
$106 Vol.
47%
65-89
$1,393 Vol.
24%
90-114
$1,052 Vol.
7%
115-139
$52 Vol.
1%
140-164
$982 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$0 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$750 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$713 Vol.
<1%
240+
$113 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus centers on the 40-64 tweet bracket (46.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s September 10-12 window because recent short-period settlements show him settling into a moderate posting rhythm of roughly 13-25 posts per day.**
The prior week’s resolved outcomes, including a <40 result ending September 7 and a 65-89 finish for September 5, reflect steady but unspectacular activity without major political flare-ups, Tesla product news, or platform controversies to accelerate volume. Historical patterns indicate Musk’s output fluctuates sharply with external events, yet the current absence of high-engagement catalysts supports the market’s lean toward the lower-to-mid ranges. The 65-89 tier (28.5%) captures any modest uptick, while higher brackets remain thin as traders price in a quiet stretch ahead of the three-day period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$5,498End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus centers on the 40-64 tweet bracket (46.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s September 10-12 window because recent short-period settlements show him settling into a moderate posting rhythm of roughly 13-25 posts per day.**
The prior week’s resolved outcomes, including a <40 result ending September 7 and a 65-89 finish for September 5, reflect steady but unspectacular activity without major political flare-ups, Tesla product news, or platform controversies to accelerate volume. Historical patterns indicate Musk’s output fluctuates sharply with external events, yet the current absence of high-engagement catalysts supports the market’s lean toward the lower-to-mid ranges. The 65-89 tier (28.5%) captures any modest uptick, while higher brackets remain thin as traders price in a quiet stretch ahead of the three-day period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$5,498End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on the 40-64 tweet bracket (46.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s September 10-12 window because recent short-period settlements show him settling into a moderate posting rhythm of roughly 13-25 posts per day.** The prior week’s resolved outcomes, including a <40 result ending September 7 and a 65-89 finish for September 5, reflect steady but unspectacular activity without major political flare-ups, Tesla product news, or platform controversies to accelerate volume. Historical patterns indicate Musk’s output fluctuates sharply with external events, yet the current absence of high-engagement catalysts supports the market’s lean toward the lower-to-mid ranges. The 65-89 tier (28.5%) captures any modest uptick, while higher brackets remain thin as traders price in a quiet stretch ahead of the three-day period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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