Elon Musk’s recent X activity has settled into a steady rhythm of roughly 23–30 posts per day, placing the September 15–22 window squarely in the 180–219 range that traders have priced as the two leading outcomes at 19.5% implied probability each. This consensus reflects verified weekly totals from early September, including an 186-post bracket resolution and comparable 200–219 results, driven by routine commentary on Tesla updates, platform metrics, and cultural topics rather than sustained spikes. Momentum remains balanced because daily output has shown short low-volume stretches without major catalysts, while the building hype around the October 1 Roadster reveal and recent SpaceX-Tesla collaboration remarks could nudge volume higher if engagement accelerates. Traders are watching for any mid-week product news or external events that might break the deadlock between these tightly contested brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated180-199 20%
200-219 20%
220-239 17%
160-179 13%
$303,107 Vol.
$303,107 Vol.
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
2%
140-159
6%
160-179
13%
180-199
20%
200-219
20%
220-239
17%
240-259
12%
260-279
7%
280-299
4%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 20%
200-219 20%
220-239 17%
160-179 13%
$303,107 Vol.
$303,107 Vol.
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
2%
140-159
6%
160-179
13%
180-199
20%
200-219
20%
220-239
17%
240-259
12%
260-279
7%
280-299
4%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent X activity has settled into a steady rhythm of roughly 23–30 posts per day, placing the September 15–22 window squarely in the 180–219 range that traders have priced as the two leading outcomes at 19.5% implied probability each. This consensus reflects verified weekly totals from early September, including an 186-post bracket resolution and comparable 200–219 results, driven by routine commentary on Tesla updates, platform metrics, and cultural topics rather than sustained spikes. Momentum remains balanced because daily output has shown short low-volume stretches without major catalysts, while the building hype around the October 1 Roadster reveal and recent SpaceX-Tesla collaboration remarks could nudge volume higher if engagement accelerates. Traders are watching for any mid-week product news or external events that might break the deadlock between these tightly contested brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions