**Recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s July decision have anchored trader expectations around a hold through the September and October FOMC meetings.** July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month with the year-over-year rate at 3.4% and core at 2.5%, showing persistent but contained inflation pressures that reduce the case for near-term easing. At the same time, the July employment report delivered a surprise net job loss with sizable downward revisions to prior months, softening the labor market and lowering the probability of a rate hike. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike amid oil-price volatility and inflation concerns. Market-implied pricing via CME FedWatch and economist surveys now assigns roughly 64–70% odds to another pause in September, consistent with the 57.5% probability attached to the full Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the July–September–October period. The sizable “Other” share (40.5%) reflects residual uncertainty around potential policy shifts if incoming CPI or labor data deviate sharply. With the next key releases—the August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC itself—still ahead, traders are pricing in a cautious wait-and-see stance rather than aggressive moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 57%
Other 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$721,140 Vol.
$721,140 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
57%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
41%
Pause–Pause–Pause 57%
Other 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$721,140 Vol.
$721,140 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$239,174 Vol.
57%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$60,091 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$39,722 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,065 Vol.
<1%
Other
$311,602 Vol.
41%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s July decision have anchored trader expectations around a hold through the September and October FOMC meetings.** July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month with the year-over-year rate at 3.4% and core at 2.5%, showing persistent but contained inflation pressures that reduce the case for near-term easing. At the same time, the July employment report delivered a surprise net job loss with sizable downward revisions to prior months, softening the labor market and lowering the probability of a rate hike.
The July 28–29 FOMC meeting left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike amid oil-price volatility and inflation concerns. Market-implied pricing via CME FedWatch and economist surveys now assigns roughly 64–70% odds to another pause in September, consistent with the 57.5% probability attached to the full Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the July–September–October period.
The sizable “Other” share (40.5%) reflects residual uncertainty around potential policy shifts if incoming CPI or labor data deviate sharply. With the next key releases—the August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC itself—still ahead, traders are pricing in a cautious wait-and-see stance rather than aggressive moves.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$721,140End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s July decision have anchored trader expectations around a hold through the September and October FOMC meetings.** July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month with the year-over-year rate at 3.4% and core at 2.5%, showing persistent but contained inflation pressures that reduce the case for near-term easing. At the same time, the July employment report delivered a surprise net job loss with sizable downward revisions to prior months, softening the labor market and lowering the probability of a rate hike.
The July 28–29 FOMC meeting left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike amid oil-price volatility and inflation concerns. Market-implied pricing via CME FedWatch and economist surveys now assigns roughly 64–70% odds to another pause in September, consistent with the 57.5% probability attached to the full Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the July–September–October period.
The sizable “Other” share (40.5%) reflects residual uncertainty around potential policy shifts if incoming CPI or labor data deviate sharply. With the next key releases—the August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC itself—still ahead, traders are pricing in a cautious wait-and-see stance rather than aggressive moves.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$721,140End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent economic data and the Federal Reserve’s July decision have anchored trader expectations around a hold through the September and October FOMC meetings.** July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month with the year-over-year rate at 3.4% and core at 2.5%, showing persistent but contained inflation pressures that reduce the case for near-term easing. At the same time, the July employment report delivered a surprise net job loss with sizable downward revisions to prior months, softening the labor market and lowering the probability of a rate hike. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with dissenters favoring a hike amid oil-price volatility and inflation concerns. Market-implied pricing via CME FedWatch and economist surveys now assigns roughly 64–70% odds to another pause in September, consistent with the 57.5% probability attached to the full Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for the July–September–October period. The sizable “Other” share (40.5%) reflects residual uncertainty around potential policy shifts if incoming CPI or labor data deviate sharply. With the next key releases—the August CPI on September 11 and the September FOMC itself—still ahead, traders are pricing in a cautious wait-and-see stance rather than aggressive moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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