Natural variability in global seismicity drives the closely matched trader odds across 7–13 events, reflecting the stochastic Poisson-like distribution of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes. Historical USGS data show weekly counts typically range 8–15, modulated by aftershock sequences from recent M6+ events, background rates along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and minor influences from tidal or seasonal loading. No major foreshock clusters or swarm activity currently elevate near-term probabilities, leaving model consensus neutral. Continuous USGS monitoring and rapid aftershock decay will determine whether totals cluster near the 9–10 mode or shift toward tails before week’s end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
≤6 22%
more than 13 15%
9 15%
10 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
≤6
22%
7
8%
8
11%
9
15%
10
12%
11
9%
12
5%
13
8%
more than 13
15%
≤6 22%
more than 13 15%
9 15%
10 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
≤6
$865 Vol.
22%
7
$49 Vol.
8%
8
$71 Vol.
11%
9
$52 Vol.
15%
10
$40 Vol.
12%
11
$31 Vol.
9%
12
$102 Vol.
5%
13
$34 Vol.
8%
more than 13
$204 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Natural variability in global seismicity drives the closely matched trader odds across 7–13 events, reflecting the stochastic Poisson-like distribution of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes. Historical USGS data show weekly counts typically range 8–15, modulated by aftershock sequences from recent M6+ events, background rates along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and minor influences from tidal or seasonal loading. No major foreshock clusters or swarm activity currently elevate near-term probabilities, leaving model consensus neutral. Continuous USGS monitoring and rapid aftershock decay will determine whether totals cluster near the 9–10 mode or shift toward tails before week’s end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$1,448End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Natural variability in global seismicity drives the closely matched trader odds across 7–13 events, reflecting the stochastic Poisson-like distribution of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes. Historical USGS data show weekly counts typically range 8–15, modulated by aftershock sequences from recent M6+ events, background rates along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and minor influences from tidal or seasonal loading. No major foreshock clusters or swarm activity currently elevate near-term probabilities, leaving model consensus neutral. Continuous USGS monitoring and rapid aftershock decay will determine whether totals cluster near the 9–10 mode or shift toward tails before week’s end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,448End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Natural variability in global seismicity drives the closely matched trader odds across 7–13 events, reflecting the stochastic Poisson-like distribution of magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes. Historical USGS data show weekly counts typically range 8–15, modulated by aftershock sequences from recent M6+ events, background rates along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and minor influences from tidal or seasonal loading. No major foreshock clusters or swarm activity currently elevate near-term probabilities, leaving model consensus neutral. Continuous USGS monitoring and rapid aftershock decay will determine whether totals cluster near the 9–10 mode or shift toward tails before week’s end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions