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icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

<35 82%

35–44 5.5%

45–54 6%

55–64 4.7%

Polymarket
NEW

<35 82%

35–44 5.5%

45–54 6%

55–64 4.7%

Polymarket
NEW

<35

$248 Vol.

82%

35–44

$294 Vol.

6%

45–54

$40 Vol.

6%

55–64

$67 Vol.

5%

65–74

$102 Vol.

5%

75–84

$163 Vol.

4%

85+

$367 Vol.

2%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**New People (NL) faces structural and polling constraints that position under 35 seats as the dominant trader consensus ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election.** Current surveys place the party at roughly 10–15% support, sufficient to clear the 5% threshold but yielding limited proportional representation in the 225-seat party-list component. The mixed system, combined with United Russia’s entrenched regional machinery and single-mandate advantages, caps expected gains. NL currently holds 15 seats; recent candidate-list finalization and regional group nominations have not produced polling surges capable of shifting projections meaningfully higher. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to modest expansion rather than doubling or tripling the faction size. Late developments such as candidate slate approvals and standard campaign activity have not altered this baseline assessment.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$1,281
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**New People (NL) faces structural and polling constraints that position under 35 seats as the dominant trader consensus ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election.** Current surveys place the party at roughly 10–15% support, sufficient to clear the 5% threshold but yielding limited proportional representation in the 225-seat party-list component. The mixed system, combined with United Russia’s entrenched regional machinery and single-mandate advantages, caps expected gains. NL currently holds 15 seats; recent candidate-list finalization and regional group nominations have not produced polling surges capable of shifting projections meaningfully higher. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to modest expansion rather than doubling or tripling the faction size. Late developments such as candidate slate approvals and standard campaign activity have not altered this baseline assessment.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$1,281
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<35" at 82%, followed by "35–44" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "<35" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35–44" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.