Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, projected between 7 and 10 seats, with averages near 8. This range aligns with the market's clustered probabilities across the 6-9 seat bins, driven by competition for Haredi and religious-right voters from United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism. Factors such as Haredi turnout, debates over military draft exemptions, security priorities after October 2023, and coalition bloc dynamics create volatility. New parties and potential alliances add further uncertainty, keeping seat outcomes sensitive to late-campaign shifts in voter mobilization and undecided support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6-7 27%
8-9 25%
12+ 25%
<6 21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6
21%
6-7
27%
8-9
25%
10-11
21%
12+
25%
6-7 27%
8-9 25%
12+ 25%
<6 21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<6
$0 Vol.
21%
6-7
$31 Vol.
27%
8-9
$0 Vol.
25%
10-11
$0 Vol.
21%
12+
$0 Vol.
25%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, projected between 7 and 10 seats, with averages near 8. This range aligns with the market's clustered probabilities across the 6-9 seat bins, driven by competition for Haredi and religious-right voters from United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism. Factors such as Haredi turnout, debates over military draft exemptions, security priorities after October 2023, and coalition bloc dynamics create volatility. New parties and potential alliances add further uncertainty, keeping seat outcomes sensitive to late-campaign shifts in voter mobilization and undecided support.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$31End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, projected between 7 and 10 seats, with averages near 8. This range aligns with the market's clustered probabilities across the 6-9 seat bins, driven by competition for Haredi and religious-right voters from United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism. Factors such as Haredi turnout, debates over military draft exemptions, security priorities after October 2023, and coalition bloc dynamics create volatility. New parties and potential alliances add further uncertainty, keeping seat outcomes sensitive to late-campaign shifts in voter mobilization and undecided support.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Shas in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Shas in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$31End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party led by Aryeh Deri, projected between 7 and 10 seats, with averages near 8. This range aligns with the market's clustered probabilities across the 6-9 seat bins, driven by competition for Haredi and religious-right voters from United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism. Factors such as Haredi turnout, debates over military draft exemptions, security priorities after October 2023, and coalition bloc dynamics create volatility. New parties and potential alliances add further uncertainty, keeping seat outcomes sensitive to late-campaign shifts in voter mobilization and undecided support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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